Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?
Saunders (1993) and Hirshleifer and Shumway (2001) document the effect of weather on stock returns. The proposed explanation in both papers is that investor mood affects cognitive processes and trading decisions. In this paper, we use a database of individual investor accounts to examine the weather effects on traders. Our analysis of the trading activity in five major U.S. cities over a six-year period finds virtually no difference in individuals' propensity to buy or sell equities on cloudy days as opposed to sunny days. If the association between cloud cover and stock returns documented for New York and other world cities is indeed caused by investor mood swings, our findings suggest that researchers should focus on the attitudes of market-makers, news providers or other agents physically located in the city hosting the exchange. NYSE spreads widen on cloudy days. When we control for this, the significance of the weather effect is dramatically reduced. We interpret this as evidence that the behavior of market-makers, rather that individual investors, may be responsible for the relation between returns and weather.
References listed on IDEAS
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- David Easley & Soeren Hvidkjaer & Maureen O'Hara, 2002. "Is Information Risk a Determinant of Asset Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2185-2221, October.
- Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & Takato Hiraki & Noriyoshi Shiraishi & Masahiro Watanabe, 2002.
"Investor Sentiment in Japanese and U.S. Daily Mutual Fund Flows,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm274, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2008.
- Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & Takato Hiraki & Noriyoshi Shirishi & Masahiro Watanabe, 2003. "Investor Sentiment in Japanese and U.S. Daily Mutual Fund Flows," NBER Working Papers 9470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & Takato Hiraki & Niroyoshi Shiraishi & Masahiro Watanabe, 2002. "Investor Sentiment in Japanese and U.S. Daily Mutual Fund Flows," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm24, Yale School of Management.
- Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Anshuman, V. Ravi, 2001. "Trading activity and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 3-32, January.
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- William N. Goetzmann & Massimo Massa, 1999. "Daily Momentum And Contrarian Behavior Of Index Fund Investors," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm13, Yale School of Management.
- William N. Goetzmann & Massimo Massa, 2000. "Daily Momentum and Contrarian Behavior of Index Fund Investors," NBER Working Papers 7567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Massimo Massa & William Goetzmann, 2000. "Daily Momentum And Contrarian Behavior Of Index Fund Investors," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm134, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2001.
- Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-1345, December.
- Shapira, Zur & Venezia, Itzhak, 2001. "Patterns of behavior of professionally managed and independent investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1573-1587, August.
- Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2000. "Distance, Language, and Culture Bias: The Role of Investor Sophistication," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm142, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2001. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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