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Is it the weather? Comment

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  • Kamstra, Mark J.
  • Kramer, Lisa A.
  • Levi, Maurice D.

Abstract

This comment discusses some errors in a recent paper by Jacobsen and Marquering [Jacobsen, B., Marquering, W., 2008. Is it the weather? Journal of Banking and Finance 32 (4), 526-540], in which the authors challenge our previous finding that stock market returns exhibit seasonal patterns consistent with the influence of seasonal affective disorder on investor risk aversion. We find that we cannot replicate the authors' findings, even after corresponding with them. Furthermore, we document several problems with their methodology, including misspecification of their economic model, misspecification of their econometric model, and use of inappropriate data. While we agree that seasonal affective disorder is not an explanation for all variation in equity markets, we do maintain that careful analysis leads to economically and statistically significant evidence of the effect we originally documented.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2009. "Is it the weather? Comment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 578-582, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:3:p:578-582
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cao, Melanie & Wei, Jason, 2005. "Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1559-1573, June.
    2. Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2008. "Robust global mood influences in equity pricing," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 145-164, April.
    3. Mark J. Kamstra & Lisa A. Kramer & Maurice D. Levi, 2003. "Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 324-343, March.
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    5. Steven D. Dolvin & Mark K. Pyles, 2007. "Seasonal affective disorder and the pricing of IPOs," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(2), pages 214-228, May.
    6. Jacobsen, Ben & Marquering, Wessel, 2008. "Is it the weather?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 526-540, April.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Garrett, Ian & Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A., 2005. "Winter blues and time variation in the price of risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 291-316, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Keef, Stephen P. & Khaled, Mohammed S., 2011. "A review of the seasonal affective disorder hypothesis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 959-967.
    2. Khaled, Mohammed S. & Keef, Stephen P., 2013. "Seasonal affective disorder: onset and recovery," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 136-139.
    3. Wagner, Moritz & Lee, John Byong-Tek & Margaritis, Dimitris, 2022. "Mutual fund flows and seasonalities in stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Dorfleitner, Gregor & Wimmer, Maximilian, 2010. "The pricing of temperature futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1360-1370, June.
    5. Qi, Howard, 2011. "Value and capacity of tax shields: An analysis of the slicing approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 166-173, January.
    6. Degenhardt, Thomas & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "The “Sell in May” effect: A review and new empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 169-205.
    7. Mamatzakis, E, 2013. "Does weather affect US bank loan efficiency?," MPRA Paper 51616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Doyle, John R. & Chen, Catherine Huirong, 2012. "A multidimensional classification of market anomalies: Evidence from 76 price indices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1237-1257.
    9. Wei-han Liu, 2013. "Lunar calendar effect: evidence of the Chinese Farmer's Calendar on the equity markets in East Asia," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 560-593.
    10. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2012. "A careful re-examination of seasonality in international stock markets: Comment on sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 934-956.
    11. Shigeki Sakakibara & Takashi Yamasaki & Katsuhiko Okada, 2013. "The Calendar Structure of the Japanese Stock Market: The ‘Sell in May Effect’ versus the ‘Dekansho-bushi Effect’," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 161-185, June.
    12. Frühwirth, Manfred & Sögner, Leopold, 2015. "Weather and SAD related mood effects on the financial market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 11-31.
    13. Coakley, Jerry & Kuo, Jing-Ming & Wood, Andrew, 2012. "The School’s Out effect: A new seasonal anomaly!," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 133-143.
    14. Tihana Škrinjarić & Branka Marasović & Boško Šego, 2021. "Does the Croatian Stock Market Have Seasonal Affective Disorder?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-16, February.

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