Winter blues and time variation in the price of risk
Previous research has documented robust links between seasonal variation in length of day, seasonal depression (known as seasonal affective disorder, or SAD), risk aversion, and stock market returns. The influence of SAD on market returns, known as the SAD effect, is large. The authors study the SAD effect in the context of an equilibrium asset pricing model to determine whether the seasonality can be explained using a conditional version of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) that allows the price of risk to vary over time. Using daily and monthly data for the United States, Sweden, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Australia, the authors find that a conditional CAPM that allows the price of risk to vary in relation to seasonal variation in the length of day fully captures the SAD effect. This result is consistent with the notion that the SAD effect arises because of the heightened risk aversion that comes with seasonal depression.
|Date of creation:||2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1000 Peachtree St., N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30309|
Web page: http://www.frbatlanta.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Hirshleifer & TYLER G. SHUMWAY, 2004.
"Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather,"
- Ritter, Jay R, 1988. " The Buying and Selling Behavior of Individual Investors at the Turn of the Year," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 701-17, July.
- Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-45, December.
- Tokunaga, Howard, 1993. "The use and abuse of consumer credit: Application of psychological theory and research," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 285-316, June.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993.
" On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
- Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
- Lisa A. Kramer & Mark J. Kamstra & Maurice D. Levi, 2000.
"Losing Sleep at the Market: The Daylight Saving Anomaly,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1005-1011, September.
- Kamstra, M.J. & Kramer, L.A. & Levi, M.D., 1998. "Losing Sleep at the Market: The Daylight-Savings Anomaly," Discussion Papers dp98-04, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Malliaropulos, Dimitrios & Priestley, Richard, 1999. "Mean reversion in Southeast Asian stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 355-384, October.
- Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317.
- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995.
" Time-Varying World Market Integration,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June.
- Mark Kamstra & Lisa Kramer & Maurice D. Levi, 2002.
"Winter blues: a SAD stock market cycle,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
2002-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2004-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elaine Clokey)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.