Does the weather affect stock market volatility?
This paper investigates the empirical association between stock market volatility and investor mood-proxies related to the weather (cloudiness, temperature and precipitation) and the environment (nighttime length). Overall, our results suggest that cloudiness and length of nighttime are inversely related to historical, implied and realized measures of volatility. The strength of association seems to vary with the location of an exchange on Earth with respect to the equator. Weather deviations from seasonal norms and dummies representing extreme weather conditions do not offer additional explanatory power in our datasets.
|Date of creation:||10 Sep 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-45, December.
- Kamstra, M.J. & Kramer, L.A. & Levi, M.D., 1998.
"Losing Sleep at the Market: The Daylight-Savings Anomaly,"
dp98-04, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
- Lisa A. Kramer & Mark J. Kamstra & Maurice D. Levi, 2000. "Losing Sleep at the Market: The Daylight Saving Anomaly," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1005-1011, September.
- Loughran, Tim & Schultz, Paul, 2004. "Weather, Stock Returns, and the Impact of Localized Trading Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(02), pages 343-364, June.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Kamstra & Lisa Kramer & Maurice Levi, 2002.
"Winter blues: a SAD stock market cycle,"
2002-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521710091 is not listed on IDEAS
- Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2008. "Robust global mood influences in equity pricing," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 145-164, April.
- Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, .
"Learning To Be Overconfident,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
05-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, . "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 5-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- David Hirshleifer & TYLER G. SHUMWAY, 2004.
"Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather,"
- Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
- Stephen P. Keef & Melvin L. Roush, 2007. "A meta-analysis of the international evidence of cloud cover on stock returns," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 324-338, August.
- Cao, Melanie & Wei, Jason, 2005. "Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1559-1573, June.
- William N. Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2005.
"Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?,"
European Financial Management,
European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(5), pages 559-578.
- William N. Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2004. "Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm28, Yale School of Management.
- William N. Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2003. "Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?," NBER Working Papers 9465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- William Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2002. "Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm296, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2009.
- Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004.
"Social Interaction and Stock-Market Participation,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 137-163, 02.
- Shalen, Catherine T, 1993. "Volume, Volatility, and the Dispersion of Beliefs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 405-34.
- Brian M. Lucey & Michael Dowling, 2005. "The Role of Feelings in Investor Decision-Making," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 211-237, 04.
- Garrett, Ian & Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A., 2005.
"Winter blues and time variation in the price of risk,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 291-316, March.
- Ian Garrett & Mark Kamstra & Lisa Kramer, 2004. "Winter blues and time variation in the price of risk," Working Paper 2004-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Levy, Ori & Galili, Itai, 2008. "Stock purchase and the weather: Individual differences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(3-4), pages 755-767, September.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002.
"Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator,"
NBER Working Papers
8816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1977, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Shirley J. Huang & Qianqiu Liu & Jun Yu, 2007. "Realized Daily Variance of S&P 500 Cash Index: A Revaluation of Stylized Facts," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(1), pages 33-56, May.
- Mehra, Rajnish & Sah, Raaj, 2002.
"Mood fluctuations, projection bias, and volatility of equity prices,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 869-887, May.
- Rajnish Mehra & Raaj Sah, 1999. "Can Small Fluctuations in Investors' Subjective Preferences Induce Large Volatility in Equity Prices?," Working Papers 9917, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
- Chang, Shao-Chi & Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chou, Robin K. & Lin, Yueh-Hsiang, 2008. "Weather and intraday patterns in stock returns and trading activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1754-1766, September.
- Meir Statman & Steven Thorley & Keith Vorkink, 2006. "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1531-1565.
- Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.