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Can Weather Conditions in New York Predict South African Stock Returns?

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas Apergis

    (Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

This paper investigates the explanatory power of certain weather variables, measured as deviations from their monthly averages, in a leading international financial trading centre, i.e., New York, for South African stock returns, over the daily period January 2nd, 1973 to December, 31, 2015. The empirical results highlight that these unusual deviations of weather variables have a statistically significant negative effect on the stock returns in South Africa, indicating that unusual weather conditions in New York can be used to predict South African stock returns, which otherwise seems to be highly unpredictable.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Apergis & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Can Weather Conditions in New York Predict South African Stock Returns?," Working Papers 201634, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201634
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unusual weather conditions; New York weather; South African stock market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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