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Does the weather affect stock market volatility?

  • Symeonidis, Lazaros
  • Daskalakis, George
  • Markellos, Raphael N.

This paper investigates the empirical association between stock market volatility and investor mood-proxies related to the weather (cloudiness, temperature and precipitation) and the environment (nighttime length). Overall, our results suggest that cloudiness and length of nighttime are inversely related to historical, implied and realized measures of volatility. The strength of association seems to vary with the location of an exchange on Earth with respect to the equator. Weather deviations from seasonal norms and dummies representing extreme weather conditions do not offer additional explanatory power in our datasets.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B7CPP-507CRV2-1/2/4b4ec1b469829a8d4f4636fa690d9935
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Finance Research Letters.

Volume (Year): 7 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 214-223

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:7:y:2010:i:4:p:214-223
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl

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  1. Mark Kamstra & Lisa Kramer & Maurice Levi, 2002. "Winter blues: a SAD stock market cycle," Working Paper 2002-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Mehra, Rajnish & Sah, Raaj, 2002. "Mood fluctuations, projection bias, and volatility of equity prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 869-887, May.
  3. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Social Interaction and Stock-Market Participation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 137-163, 02.
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  6. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
  7. Loughran, Tim & Schultz, Paul, 2004. "Weather, Stock Returns, and the Impact of Localized Trading Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(02), pages 343-364, June.
  8. Brian M. Lucey & Michael Dowling, 2005. "The Role of Feelings in Investor Decision-Making," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 211-237, 04.
  9. Kamstra, M.J. & Kramer, L.A. & Levi, M.D., 1998. "Losing Sleep at the Market: The Daylight-Savings Anomaly," Discussion Papers dp98-04, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  10. William N. Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2005. "Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(5), pages 559-578.
  11. Ian Garrett & Mark Kamstra & Lisa Kramer, 2004. "Winter blues and time variation in the price of risk," Working Paper 2004-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  12. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator," NBER Working Papers 8816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Chang, Shao-Chi & Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chou, Robin K. & Lin, Yueh-Hsiang, 2008. "Weather and intraday patterns in stock returns and trading activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1754-1766, September.
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  15. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
  16. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  17. Levy, Ori & Galili, Itai, 2008. "Stock purchase and the weather: Individual differences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(3-4), pages 755-767, September.
  18. Shirley J. Huang & Qianqiu Liu & Jun Yu, 2007. "Realized Daily Variance of S&P 500 Cash Index: A Revaluation of Stylized Facts," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(1), pages 33-56, May.
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  20. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521710091 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Cao, Melanie & Wei, Jason, 2005. "Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1559-1573, June.
  22. Stephen P. Keef & Melvin L. Roush, 2007. "A meta-analysis of the international evidence of cloud cover on stock returns," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 324-338, August.
  23. Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2008. "Robust global mood influences in equity pricing," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 145-164, April.
  24. Shalen, Catherine T, 1993. "Volume, Volatility, and the Dispersion of Beliefs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 405-34.
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