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Waves in Ship Prices and Investment

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  • Robin Greenwood
  • Samuel G. Hanson

Abstract

We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low future returns. We propose and estimate a behavioral model of industry cycles that can account for the evidence. In our model, firms overextrapolate exogenous demand shocks and partially neglect the endogenous investment response of their competitors. As a result, firms overpay for ships and overinvest in booms and are disappointed by the subsequent low returns. Formal estimation of the model suggests that modest expectational errors can result in dramatic excess volatility in prices and investment. JEL Codes: E32, L16, G02.

Suggested Citation

  • Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2015. "Waves in Ship Prices and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(1), pages 55-109.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:130:y:2015:i:1:p:55-109
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/qje/qju035
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:transe:v:115:y:2018:i:c:p:164-212 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2016. "Shipping investor sentiment and international stock return predictability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 81-94.
    3. Hansen, Erwin & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2017. "Stockpiling cash when it takes time to build: Exploring price differentials in a commodity boom," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 197-212.
    4. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2018. "Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 199-227, February.
    5. repec:eee:transe:v:112:y:2018:i:c:p:107-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Alexandridis, G. & Sahoo, S. & Visvikis, I., 2017. "Economic information transmissions and liquidity between shipping markets: New evidence from freight derivatives," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 82-104.
    7. repec:eee:transe:v:104:y:2017:i:c:p:36-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Menzel, Christina & Schröder, Henning, 2016. "Systematic risk behavior in cyclical industries: The case of shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 129-145.
    9. Sabrina Artinger & Thomas C. Powell, 2016. "Entrepreneurial failure: Statistical and psychological explanations," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 1047-1064, June.
    10. repec:eee:jfinec:v:126:y:2017:i:1:p:97-121 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ready, Robert & Roussanov, Nikolai & Ward, Colin, 2017. "After the tide: Commodity currencies and global trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 69-86.
    12. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Haller, Rebekka & Meier, Iwan, 2016. "Cash flow sensitivities during normal and crisis times: Evidence from shipping," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 26-49.
    13. Li, X. & Zuidwijk, R.A. & de Koster, M.B.M. & Dekker, R., 2016. "Competitive Capacity Investment under Uncertainty," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2016-005-LIS, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    14. repec:gam:jijfss:v:6:y:2018:i:1:p:11-:d:127786 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:eee:transe:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:98-114 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • L9 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities

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