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Waves in Ship Prices and Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Robin Greenwood
  • Samuel G. Hanson

Abstract

We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low future returns. We propose and estimate a behavioral model of industry cycles that can account for the evidence. In our model, firms overextrapolate exogenous demand shocks and partially neglect the endogenous investment response of their competitors. As a result, firms overpay for ships and overinvest in booms and are disappointed by the subsequent low returns. Formal estimation of the model suggests that modest expectational errors can result in dramatic excess volatility in prices and investment. JEL Codes: E32, L16, G02.

Suggested Citation

  • Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2015. "Waves in Ship Prices and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(1), pages 55-109.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:130:y:2015:i:1:p:55-109
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/qje/qju035
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2016. "Shipping investor sentiment and international stock return predictability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 81-94.
    2. Hansen, Erwin & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2017. "Stockpiling cash when it takes time to build: Exploring price differentials in a commodity boom," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 197-212.
    3. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, "undated". "Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles," Working Paper 350646, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    4. repec:eee:transe:v:104:y:2017:i:c:p:36-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Menzel, Christina & Schröder, Henning, 2016. "Systematic risk behavior in cyclical industries: The case of shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 129-145.
    6. Sabrina Artinger & Thomas C. Powell, 2016. "Entrepreneurial failure: Statistical and psychological explanations," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 1047-1064, June.
    7. repec:eee:jfinec:v:126:y:2017:i:1:p:97-121 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ready, Robert & Roussanov, Nikolai & Ward, Colin, 2017. "After the tide: Commodity currencies and global trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 69-86.
    9. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Haller, Rebekka & Meier, Iwan, 2016. "Cash flow sensitivities during normal and crisis times: Evidence from shipping," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 26-49.
    10. repec:gam:jijfss:v:6:y:2018:i:1:p:11-:d:127786 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:transe:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:98-114 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles

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