IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transe/v51y2013icp82-94.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Freight options: Price modelling and empirical analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Nomikos, Nikos K.
  • Kyriakou, Ioannis
  • Papapostolou, Nikos C.
  • Pouliasis, Panos K.

Abstract

This paper discusses an extension of the traditional lognormal representation for the risk neutral spot freight rate dynamics to a diffusion model overlaid with jumps of random magnitude and arrival. Then, we develop a valuation framework for options on the average spot freight rate, which are commonly traded in the freight derivatives market. By exploiting the computational efficiency of the proposed pricing scheme, we calibrate the jump diffusion model using market quotes of options on the trip-charter route average Baltic Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Indices. We show that the jump-extended setting yields important model improvements over the basic lognormal setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Nomikos, Nikos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis & Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2013. "Freight options: Price modelling and empirical analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 82-94.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:51:y:2013:i:c:p:82-94
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2012.12.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1366554512001019
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tre.2012.12.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. G. Kou, 2002. "A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1086-1101, August.
    2. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data‐Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
    3. Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 1997. "Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2003-2049, December.
    4. Leif Andersen & Jesper Andreasen, 2000. "Jump-Diffusion Processes: Volatility Smile Fitting and Numerical Methods for Option Pricing," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 231-262, October.
    5. Koekebakker, Steen & Adland, Roar & Sødal, Sigbjørn, 2007. "Pricing freight rate options," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 535-548, September.
    6. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
    7. Tsai, Mei-Ting & Saphores, Jean-Daniel & Regan, Amelia, 2011. "Valuation of freight transportation contracts under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 920-932.
    8. Brailsford, Timothy J. & Faff, Robert W., 1996. "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 419-438, April.
    9. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    10. Turnbull, Stuart M. & Wakeman, Lee Macdonald, 1991. "A Quick Algorithm for Pricing European Average Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 377-389, September.
    11. Jan Vecer & Mingxin Xu, 2004. "Pricing Asian options in a semimartingale model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 170-175.
    12. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
    13. Eberlein, Ernst & Papapantoleon, Antonis, 2005. "Equivalence of floating and fixed strike Asian and lookback options," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 31-40, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yu, Fangping & Xiang, Zhiyuan & Wang, Xuanhe & Yang, Mo & Kuang, Haibo, 2023. "An innovative tool for cost control under fragmented scenarios: The container freight index microinsurance," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Lim, Kian Guan & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Yap, Nelson, 2019. "Understanding the fundamentals of freight markets volatility," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-15.
    3. Xiwen Bai & Jasmine Siu Lee Lam, 2019. "An integrated analysis of interrelationships within the very large gas carrier (VLGC) shipping market," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 21(3), pages 372-389, September.
    4. Alexandridis, George & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Kim, Chi Y. & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A. & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2018. "A survey of shipping finance research: Setting the future research agenda," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 164-212.
    5. Ioannis Kyriakou & Panos K. Pouliasis & Nikos C. Papapostolou, 2016. "Jumps and stochastic volatility in crude oil prices and advances in average option pricing," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1859-1873, December.
    6. Adland, Roar & Prochazka, Vit, 2021. "The value of timecharter optionality in the drybulk market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Ahrends, Meike & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Nomikos, Nikos K., 2018. "Corporate cash holdings in the shipping industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 107-124.
    8. Chen, Feier & Tian, Kang & Ding, Xiaoxu & Miao, Yuqi & Lu, Chunxia, 2016. "Finite-size effect and the components of multifractality in transport economics volatility based on multifractal detrending moving average method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 1058-1066.
    9. Panos K. Pouliasis & Christos Bentsos, 2024. "Oil price uncertainty and the relation to tanker shipping," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2472-2494, April.
    10. Lourdes Gómez-Valle & Julia Martínez-Rodríguez, 2021. "Including Jumps in the Stochastic Valuation of Freight Derivatives," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-17, January.
    11. Alexandridis, G. & Sahoo, S. & Visvikis, I., 2017. "Economic information transmissions and liquidity between shipping markets: New evidence from freight derivatives," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 82-104.
    12. Lourdes Gómez-Valle & Miguel Angel López-Marcos & Julia Martínez-Rodríguez, 2020. "Two New Strategies for Pricing Freight Options by Means of a Valuation PDE and by Functional Bounds," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-12, April.
    13. Adland, Roar & Alizadeh, Amir H., 2018. "Explaining price differences between physical and derivative freight contracts," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 20-33.
    14. Zhong, Huiling & Zhang, Fa & Gu, Yimiao, 2021. "A Stackelberg game based two-stage framework to make decisions of freight rate for container shipping lines in the emerging blockchain-based market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    15. Lourdes Gómez‐Valle & Ioannis Kyriakou & Julia Martínez‐Rodríguez & Nikos K. Nomikos, 2021. "Estimating risk‐neutral freight rate dynamics: A nonparametric approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1824-1842, November.
    16. Tvedt, Jostein, 2019. "Transport services and the valuation of flexibility over business cycles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 517-528.
    17. Adland, Roar & Benth, Fred Espen & Koekebakker, Steen, 2018. "Multivariate modeling and analysis of regional ocean freight rates," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 194-221.
    18. Vafa Arani, Hamed & Rabbani, Masoud & Rafiei, Hamed, 2016. "A revenue-sharing option contract toward coordination of supply chains," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 42-56.
    19. Fred Espen Benth & Steen Koekebakker, 2016. "Stochastic modeling of Supramax spot and forward freight rates," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 18(4), pages 391-413, December.
    20. Liu, Shuai & Hua, Guowei & Cheng, T.C.E. & Dong, Jingxin, 2021. "Unmanned vehicle distribution capacity sharing with demand surge under option contracts," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ioannis Kyriakou & Panos K. Pouliasis & Nikos C. Papapostolou & Nikos K. Nomikos, 2018. "Income uncertainty and the decision to invest in bulk shipping," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(3), pages 387-417, June.
    2. Kozarski, R., 2013. "Pricing and hedging in the VIX derivative market," Other publications TiSEM 221fefe0-241e-4914-b6bd-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Mark Broadie & Jerome B. Detemple, 2004. "ANNIVERSARY ARTICLE: Option Pricing: Valuation Models and Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1145-1177, September.
    4. J. Lars Kirkby & Duy Nguyen, 2020. "Efficient Asian option pricing under regime switching jump diffusions and stochastic volatility models," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 307-351, September.
    5. Volk-Makarewicz, Warren & Borovkova, Svetlana & Heidergott, Bernd, 2022. "Assessing the impact of jumps in an option pricing model: A gradient estimation approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 740-751.
    6. Ascione, Giacomo & Mehrdoust, Farshid & Orlando, Giuseppe & Samimi, Oldouz, 2023. "Foreign Exchange Options on Heston-CIR Model Under Lévy Process Framework," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 446(C).
    7. Ying Chang & Yiming Wang & Sumei Zhang, 2021. "Option Pricing under Double Heston Jump-Diffusion Model with Approximative Fractional Stochastic Volatility," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-10, January.
    8. Carl Chiarella & Boda Kang & Gunter H. Meyer & Andrew Ziogas, 2009. "The Evaluation Of American Option Prices Under Stochastic Volatility And Jump-Diffusion Dynamics Using The Method Of Lines," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 393-425.
    9. Jamal Amani Rad & Kourosh Parand, 2014. "Numerical pricing of American options under two stochastic factor models with jumps using a meshless local Petrov-Galerkin method," Papers 1412.6064, arXiv.org.
    10. Sun, Qi & Xu, Weidong, 2015. "Pricing foreign equity option with stochastic volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 437(C), pages 89-100.
    11. Christara, Christina C. & Leung, Nat Chun-Ho, 2016. "Option pricing in jump diffusion models with quadratic spline collocation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 279(C), pages 28-42.
    12. Liming Feng & Vadim Linetsky, 2008. "Pricing Options in Jump-Diffusion Models: An Extrapolation Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(2), pages 304-325, April.
    13. Nicola Bruti-Liberati, 2007. "Numerical Solution of Stochastic Differential Equations with Jumps in Finance," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1, July-Dece.
    14. Blessing Taruvinga & Boda Kang & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos, 2018. "Pricing American Options with Jumps in Asset and Volatility," Research Paper Series 394, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    15. Ciprian Necula, 2008. "Asset Pricing in a Two-Country Discontinuous General Equilibrium Model," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 24, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
    16. Javadi, Siamak & Li, Weiping & Nejadmalayeri, Ali, 2023. "Contingent capital conversion under dual asset and equity jump–diffusions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Xu, Weidong & Wu, Chongfeng & Li, Hongyi, 2011. "Accounting for the impact of higher order moments in foreign equity option pricing model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1726-1729, July.
    18. Date, Paresh & Islyaev, Suren, 2015. "A fast calibrating volatility model for option pricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(2), pages 599-606.
    19. Kuldip Singh Patel & Mani Mehra, 2018. "Fourth order compact scheme for option pricing under Merton and Kou jump-diffusion models," Papers 1804.07534, arXiv.org.
    20. Karel in 't Hout & Jari Toivanen, 2015. "Application of Operator Splitting Methods in Finance," Papers 1504.01022, arXiv.org.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:51:y:2013:i:c:p:82-94. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600244/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.