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Jumps and stochastic volatility in crude oil prices and advances in average option pricing

Author

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  • Ioannis Kyriakou
  • Panos K. Pouliasis
  • Nikos C. Papapostolou

Abstract

Crude oil derivatives form an important part of the global derivatives market. In this paper, we focus on Asian options which are favoured by risk managers being effective and cost-saving hedging instruments. The paper has both empirical and theoretical contributions: we conduct an empirical analysis of the crude oil price dynamics and develop an accurate pricing set-up for arithmetic Asian options with discrete and continuous monitoring featuring stochastic volatility and discontinuous underlying asset price movements. Our theoretical contribution is applicable to various commodities exhibiting similar stylized properties. We here estimate the stochastic volatility model with price jumps as well as the nested model with omitted jumps to NYMEX WTI futures vanilla options. We find that price jumps and stochastic volatility are necessary to fit options. Despite the averaging effect, we show that Asian options remain sensitive to jump risk and that ignoring the discontinuities can lead to substantial mispricings.

Suggested Citation

  • Ioannis Kyriakou & Panos K. Pouliasis & Nikos C. Papapostolou, 2016. "Jumps and stochastic volatility in crude oil prices and advances in average option pricing," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1859-1873, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:16:y:2016:i:12:p:1859-1873
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2016.1211798
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    2. Ding, Hui & Huang, Yisu & Wang, Jiqian, 2023. "Have the predictability of oil changed during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Xingchun Wang, 2020. "Analytical valuation of Asian options with counterparty risk under stochastic volatility models," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 410-429, March.
    4. Horpestad, Jone B. & Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Olsen, Torbjørn B., 2019. "Asymmetric volatility in equity markets around the world," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 540-554.
    5. Per Bjarte Solibakke, 2021. "Forecasting Stochastic Volatility Characteristics for the Financial Fossil Oil Market Densities," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, October.
    6. Wong, Patrick, 2023. "Explaining intraday crude oil returns with higher order risk-neutral moments," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    7. Dan Pirjol & Lingjiong Zhu, 2023. "Asymptotics for Short Maturity Asian Options in Jump-Diffusion models with Local Volatility," Papers 2308.15672, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    8. Bianca Reichert & Adriano Mendon a Souza, 2022. "Can the Heston Model Forecast Energy Generation? A Systematic Literature Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 289-295.
    9. Ignatieva, Katja & Wong, Patrick, 2022. "Modelling high frequency crude oil dynamics using affine and non-affine jump–diffusion models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

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