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Resource extraction with a carbon tax and regime switching prices: Exercising your options

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  • Insley, Margaret

Abstract

This paper develops a model of a profit maximizing firm with the option to exploit a non-renewable resource, choosing the timing and pace of development. The resource price is modelled as a regime switching process, which is calibrated to oil futures prices. A Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation is specified that describes the profit maximization decision of the firm. The model is applied to a problem of optimal investment in a typical oils sands in situ operation, and solved for critical levels of oil prices that would motivate a firm to make the large scale investment needed for oil sands extraction, as well as to operate, mothball or abandon the facility. Regime shifts can have an important effect on the optimal timing of investment and extraction. The paper examines the effect of several carbon tax schemes on optimal timing of construction, production and abandonment. A form of Green Paradox is identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Insley, Margaret, 2017. "Resource extraction with a carbon tax and regime switching prices: Exercising your options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-16.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:1-16
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.07.013
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2019. "Rescaling-contraction with a lower cost technology when revenue declines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 574-586.
    2. Sara Aghakazemjourabbaf & Margaret Insley, 2018. "Optimal timing of harzardous waste clean-up under an environmental bond an a strict liability rule," Working Papers 1803, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised 06 Jan 2018.
    3. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2018. "The energy, environmental and economic impacts of carbon tax rate and taxation industry: A CGE based study in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 558-568.
    4. Aghakazemjourabbaf, Sara & Insley, Margaret, 2021. "Leaving your tailings behind: Environmental bonds, bankruptcy and waste cleanup," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Margaret Insley & Yichun Huang, 2020. "The economics of water conservation regulations under uncertainty: An application to Alberta's Lower Athabasca River Region," Working Papers 2003, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2020.
    6. Boqiang Lin & Zhijie Jia, 2020. "Supply control vs. demand control: why is resource tax more effective than carbon tax in reducing emissions?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Kougias, Ioannis & Szabó, Sándor & Nikitas, Alexandros & Theodossiou, Nicolaos, 2019. "Sustainable energy modelling of non-interconnected Mediterranean islands," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 930-940.
    8. Huhtala, Anni & Ropponen, Olli, 2020. "Resource and Environmental Policies for the Mining Industry: What Should Governments Do About the Increasing Social and Environmental Risks?," Working Papers 137, VATT Institute for Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-renewable natural resources; Oil sands; Optimal control; HJB equation; Carbon tax; Regime switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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