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Optimal fishery harvesting rules under uncertainty

  • Sarkar, Sudipto
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    This paper derives the optimal fishery harvest policy in a real-option model with a stochastic logistic growth process, harvest-sensitive output price, and both fixed and variable harvesting costs. The policy specifies the harvest trigger and harvest size, while outputs from the model include the value of the fishery and the risk of extinction. The optimal policy is illustrated with data from the Pacific Halibut Fishery. For this particular case, the optimal policy recommends harvesting when the fish stock rises to about three-quarters the environmental carrying capacity, and the amount harvested should be approximately a quarter of the prevailing stock. This harvesting policy maximizes the value of the fishery, and importantly, the resulting risk of extinction is negligible. We also carry out some sensitivity analysis to see how the optimal policy (and the resulting fishery value and risk of extinction) change when the input parameters are varied, particularly the ecological parameters intrinsic growth rate and volatility of the stock, and also the economic parameters that have been ignored in previous papers (price sensitivity and fixed cost). If the optimal policy is followed, the risk of extinction will be negligible, except for very low growth rate and high volatility.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VFJ-4WKKTRJ-1/2/2809d0c65c68c271020c44c16394894e
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Resource and Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 4 (November)
    Pages: 272-286

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:resene:v:31:y:2009:i:4:p:272-286
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505569

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    1. Nostbakken, Linda, 2006. "Regime switching in a fishery with stochastic stock and price," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 231-241, March.
    2. Clark, Colin W. & Munro, Gordon R., 1975. "The economics of fishing and modern capital theory: A simplified approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 92-106, December.
    3. H. Scott Gordon, 1954. "The Economic Theory of a Common-Property Resource: The Fishery," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 124.
    4. Arantza Murillas & José Manuel Chamorro, 2006. "Valuation and Management of Fishing Resources Under Price Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(1), pages 39-71, 01.
    5. Tracy R. Lewis & Richard Schmalensee, 1979. "Non-convexity and Optimal Harvesting Strategies for Renewable Resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 12(4), pages 677-91, November.
    6. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
    7. Tracy R. Lewis, 1981. "Exploitation of a Renewable Resource under Uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 14(3), pages 422-39, August.
    8. Liski, Matti & Kort, Peter M. & Novak, Andreas, 2001. "Increasing returns and cycles in fishing," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 241-258, July.
    9. R. Quentin Grafton & Leif K. Sandal & Stein Ivar Steinshamn, 2000. "How to Improve the Management of Renewable Resources: The Case of Canada's Northern Cod Fishery," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 570-580.
    10. Clark, Colin W, 1973. "Profit Maximization and the Extinction of Animal Species," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(4), pages 950-61, July-Aug..
    11. R. Quentin Grafton & Tom Kompas & Pham Van Ha, 2006. "The Economic Payoffs from Marine Reserves: Resource Rents in a Stochastic Environment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(259), pages 469-480, December.
    12. Singh, Rajesh & Weninger, Quinn & Doyle, Matthew, 2006. "Fisheries management with stock growth uncertainty and costly capital adjustment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 582-599, September.
    13. Saphores, Jean-Daniel, 2003. "Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 509-529, December.
    14. Rognvaldur Hannesson, 1975. "Fishery Dynamics: A North Atlantic Cod Fishery," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 8(2), pages 151-73, May.
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