Optimal fishery harvesting rules under uncertainty
This paper derives the optimal fishery harvest policy in a real-option model with a stochastic logistic growth process, harvest-sensitive output price, and both fixed and variable harvesting costs. The policy specifies the harvest trigger and harvest size, while outputs from the model include the value of the fishery and the risk of extinction. The optimal policy is illustrated with data from the Pacific Halibut Fishery. For this particular case, the optimal policy recommends harvesting when the fish stock rises to about three-quarters the environmental carrying capacity, and the amount harvested should be approximately a quarter of the prevailing stock. This harvesting policy maximizes the value of the fishery, and importantly, the resulting risk of extinction is negligible. We also carry out some sensitivity analysis to see how the optimal policy (and the resulting fishery value and risk of extinction) change when the input parameters are varied, particularly the ecological parameters intrinsic growth rate and volatility of the stock, and also the economic parameters that have been ignored in previous papers (price sensitivity and fixed cost). If the optimal policy is followed, the risk of extinction will be negligible, except for very low growth rate and high volatility.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nostbakken, Linda, 2006. "Regime switching in a fishery with stochastic stock and price," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 231-241, March.
- Clark, Colin W, 1973. "Profit Maximization and the Extinction of Animal Species," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(4), pages 950-61, July-Aug..
- M. Liski, P.M. Kort, A.J. Novak, 2001.
"Increasing returns and cycles in fishing,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2001
126, Society for Computational Economics.
- Kort, P.M. & Liski, M. & Novak, A.J., 2001. "Increasing returns and cycles in fishing," Other publications TiSEM 005cdced-611c-4158-a257-8, School of Economics and Management.
- Liski, M. & Kort, P.M. & Novak, A.J., 2000. "Increasing Returns and Cycles in Fishing," Discussion Paper 2000-57, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
- Rognvaldur Hannesson, 1975. "Fishery Dynamics: A North Atlantic Cod Fishery," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 8(2), pages 151-73, May.
- Saphores, Jean-Daniel, 2003. "Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 509-529, December.
- Singh, Rajesh & Weninger, Quinn & Doyle, Matthew, 2006.
"Fisheries management with stock growth uncertainty and costly capital adjustment,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 582-599, September.
- Singh, Rajesh & Weninger, Quinn & Doyle, Matthew, 2006. "Fisheries Management with Stock Growth Uncertainty and Costly Capital Adjustment," Staff General Research Papers 12765, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- repec:dgr:kubcen:200057 is not listed on IDEAS
- R. Quentin Grafton & Tom Kompas & Pham Van Ha, 2006.
"The Economic Payoffs from Marine Reserves: Resource Rents in a Stochastic Environment,"
The Economic Record,
The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(259), pages 469-480, December.
- R. Quentin Grafton & Tom Kompas & Pham Van Ha, 2005. "The Economic Payoffs from Marine Reserves: Resource Rents in a Stochastic Environment," International and Development Economics Working Papers idec05-3, International and Development Economics.
- Tracy R. Lewis, 1981. "Exploitation of a Renewable Resource under Uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 14(3), pages 422-39, August.
- R. Quentin Grafton & Leif K. Sandal & Stein Ivar Steinshamn, 2000. "How to Improve the Management of Renewable Resources: The Case of Canada's Northern Cod Fishery," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 570-580.
- H. Scott Gordon, 1954. "The Economic Theory of a Common-Property Resource: The Fishery," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 124.
- Clark, Colin W. & Munro, Gordon R., 1975. "The economics of fishing and modern capital theory: A simplified approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 92-106, December.
- Arantza Murillas & José Manuel Chamorro, 2006. "Valuation and Management of Fishing Resources Under Price Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(1), pages 39-71, 01.
- Tracy R. Lewis & Richard Schmalensee, 1979. "Non-convexity and Optimal Harvesting Strategies for Renewable Resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 12(4), pages 677-91, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:resene:v:31:y:2009:i:4:p:272-286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.