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Analyzing Risk of Stock Collapse in a Fishery under Stochastic Profit Maximization

Author

Listed:
  • Poudel, Diwakar

    () (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Sandal, Leif K.

    () (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Kvamsdal, Sturla F.

    () (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

Abstract

In commercial fisheries, stock collapse is an intrinsic problem caused by overexploitation or due to pure stochasticity. To analyze the risk of stock collapse, we apply a relatively simple Monte Carlo approach which can capture complex stock dynamics. We use an economic model with downward sloping demand and stock dependent costs. First, we derive an optimal exploitation policy as a feedback control rule and analyze the effects of stochasticity. We observe that the stochastic solution is more conservative compared to the deterministic solution at low level of stochasticity. For moderate level of stochasticity, a more myopic exploitation is optimal at small stock and conservative at large stock level. For relatively high stochasticity, one should be myopic in exploitation. Then, we simulate the system forward in time with the optimal solution. In simulated paths, some stock recovered while others collapsed. From the simulation approach, we estimate the probability of stock collapse and characterize the long term stable region.

Suggested Citation

  • Poudel, Diwakar & Sandal, Leif K. & Kvamsdal, Sturla F., 2012. "Analyzing Risk of Stock Collapse in a Fishery under Stochastic Profit Maximization," Discussion Papers 2012/4, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2012_004
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11250/164192
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Johnston & Jon G. Sutinen, 1996. "Uncertain Biomass Shift and Collapse: Implications for Harvest Policy in the Fishery," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 72(4), pages 500-518.
    2. Nostbakken, Linda, 2006. "Regime switching in a fishery with stochastic stock and price," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 231-241, March.
    3. James Sanchirico & Michael Springborn, 2011. "How to Get There From Here: Ecological and Economic Dynamics of Ecosystem Service Provision," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(2), pages 243-267, February.
    4. Reed, William J., 1979. "Optimal escapement levels in stochastic and deterministic harvesting models," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 350-363, December.
    5. Clark, Colin W. & Munro, Gordon R., 1975. "The economics of fishing and modern capital theory: A simplified approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 92-106, December.
    6. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2009. "Optimal fishery harvesting rules under uncertainty," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 272-286, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochasticity; Ensemble Kalman filter; Stock Collapse; Probability;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q22 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Fishery
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

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