A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1
This paper examines the performance of M1 in an indicator model of inflation over time horizons as long as 16 quarters into the future. The central conclusion of the paper is that, in addtion to the output gap, the cumulative growth of M1 and the deviations of M1 from its long-run path provide "distant-early-warning" information about the future path of inflation.
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- Armour, J. & Atta-Mensah, J. & Engert, W. & Hendry, S., 1996. "A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria," Working Papers 96-5, Bank of Canada.
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- John A. Tatom, 1990. "The P-star approach to the link between money and prices," Working Papers 1990-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-58, September.
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