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Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: An Unobserved Components Approach

This paper re-examines the impact of demographic factors on the current account balance. To this end, we develop an analytical framework that is more general than the one commonly used in the literature in three aspects. First, it accounts for the facts that the world current account balance must be equal to zero. Second, a bigger economy will have greater impacts on others, but be influenced less by them. Third, a more open economy will have greater impacts on others and at the same time be more readily influenced by them. We then confront two alternative empirical specifications based on both the new and the conventional framework with a panel of data. In contrast to the findings based on the conventional framework, our results with the new framework indicate that population ageing does not appear to have discernible impacts on the current account balance.

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File URL: http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/mrg/4111.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series MRG Discussion Paper Series with number 4111.

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Handle: RePEc:qld:uqmrg6:41
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Web page: http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/
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  1. Masson, Paul R & Bayoumi, Tamim & Samiei, Hossein, 1998. "International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 483-501, September.
  2. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
  3. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  4. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  5. Martin Floden & David Domeij, 2004. "Population Aging and International Capital Flows," 2004 Meeting Papers 490, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Li, Hongbin & Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2007. "Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: Evidence from a panel of cross countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 138-154, September.
  7. Graff, Michael, 1998. "Educational imbalance, socio-economic inequality, political freedom and economic development," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 03/98, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  8. Anthony Legg & Nalini Prasad & Tim Robinson, 2007. "Global Imbalances and the Global Saving Glut – A Panel Data Assessment," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2007-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  9. Attanasio Orazio P. & Kitao Sagiri & Violante Giovanni L., 2006. "Quantifying the Effects of the Demographic Transition in Developing Economies," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-44, April.
  10. Soyoung Kim & Jong-Wha Lee, 2007. "Demographic Changes, Saving, and Current Account in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 6(2), pages 22-53, May.
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