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Demography, Financial Openness, National Savings and External Balance

This paper examines the impact of demographic factors on saving, investment, and external balances. We derive a number of semi-structural equations from national accounting principle and the principle that external balances for the world as a whole must sum to zero. The resulting equations embody both closed, partially open and completely open economies as special cases, and are arguably more properly specified than those previously used in the literature. We apply these semi-structural equations to a large panel data set. While our findings by and large are in agreement with most of previous studies, our semi-structural equations give much more plausible estimation results for saving and investment than conventional specification.

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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series MRG Discussion Paper Series with number 2008.

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Handle: RePEc:qld:uqmrg6:20
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  1. Julien Fouquau & Christophe Hurlin & Isabelle Rabaud, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: a Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach," Post-Print halshs-00257346, HAL.
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  4. Domeij, David & Flodén, Martin, 2003. "Population Aging and International Capital Flows," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 539, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 21 Oct 2003.
  5. Michael Feroli, 2003. "Capital flows among the G-7 nations: a demographic perspective," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  7. Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang & Jie Zhang, . "Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: Evidence from a panel of cross countries," MRG Discussion Paper Series 1106, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  8. David N. Weil, 2006. "Population Ageing," Working Papers id:506, eSocialSciences.
  9. Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 2000. "Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 31-77, August.
  10. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005. "Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World "Savings Glut"," NBER Working Papers 11761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Phillip Arestis & Michelle Baddeley & John S.L. McCombie (ed.), 2007. "Economic Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3958, 10.
  12. Charles Yuji Horioka & Wataru Suzuki & Tatsuo Hatta, 2007. "Aging, Saving, and Public Pensions in Japan," NBER Working Papers 13273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis T, 1991. "Intergenerational Trade, Longevity, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 1029-59, October.
  14. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  15. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. David Backus & Espen Henriksen & Frederic Lambert & Chris Telmer, 2005. "Current Account Fact and Fiction," 2005 Meeting Papers 115, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  17. Paul R Masson & Tamim Bayoumi & Hossein Samiei, 1995. "International Evidenceon the Determinants of Private Saving," IMF Working Papers 95/51, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-69, May.
  19. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
  20. Attanasio Orazio P. & Kitao Sagiri & Violante Giovanni L., 2006. "Quantifying the Effects of the Demographic Transition in Developing Economies," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-44, April.
  21. Anthony Legg & Nalini Prasad & Tim Robinson, 2007. "Global Imbalances and the Global Saving Glut – A Panel Data Assessment," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2007-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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