IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ess/wpaper/id506.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Population Ageing

Author

Listed:
  • David N. Weil

Abstract

Population aging is primarily the result of past declines in fertility, which produced a decades long period in which the ratio of dependents to working age adults was reduced. Rising old-age dependency in many countries represents the inevitable passing of this 'demographic dividend'. Societies use three methods to transfer resources to people in dependent age groups: government, family, and personal saving. In developed countries, families are predominant in supporting children, while government is the main source of support for the elderly. The most important means by which aging will affect aggregate output is the distortion from taxes to fund PAYGO pensions [NBER WP].

Suggested Citation

  • David N. Weil, 2006. "Population Ageing," Working Papers id:506, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:506
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eSocialSciences.com/data/articles/Document1352006130.9964258.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David N. Weil, 1994. "The Saving of the Elderly in Micro and Macro Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 55-81.
    2. Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "Why do Americans work so much more than Europeans?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 28(Jul), pages 2-13.
    3. Kathleen McGarry & Robert F. Schoeni, 1998. "Social Security, Economic Growth, and the Rise in Independence of Elderly Widows in the 20th Century," NBER Working Papers 6511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Heinrich Hock & David Weil, 2012. "On the dynamics of the age structure, dependency, and consumption," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 1019-1043, July.
    5. Brooks,Robin & Razin,Assaf (ed.), 2005. "Social Security Reform," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844956, September.
    6. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America Save for Its Old Age? Fiscal Policy, Population Aging, and National Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 57-74, Summer.
    7. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee & An-Chi Tung & Mun-Sim Lai & Tim Miller, 2009. "Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts," NBER Chapters, in: Developments in the Economics of Aging, pages 89-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. David N. Weil, 1999. "Population Growth, Dependency, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 251-255, May.
    9. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    10. M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), 1997. "Handbook of Population and Family Economics," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    11. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Kent Smetters, 2006. "Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: An Update," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 20, pages 193-223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Kathleen Mcgarry & Robert Schoeni, 2000. "Social security, economic growth, and the rise in elderly widows’ independence in the twentieth century," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(2), pages 221-236, May.
    13. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
    14. Robin Brooks, 2003. "Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(2), pages 1-3.
    15. Gary Burtless, 2006. "Cross-National Evidence on the Burden of Age-Related Public Transfers and Health Benefits," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2006-6, Center for Retirement Research, revised Feb 2006.
    16. Mason, Andrew & Tapinos, Georges (ed.), 2000. "Sharing the Wealth: Demographic Change and Economic Transfers between Generations," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296201.
    17. Julian L. Simon (ed.), 1997. "The economics of population," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 1076.
    18. Kyung‐Mook Lim & David N. Weil, 2003. "The Baby Boom and the Stock Market Boom," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 359-378, September.
    19. Ronald D. Lee, "undated". "A CrossCultural Perspective on Intergenerational Transfers and the Economic Life Cycle," Working Papers _001, University of California at Berkeley, Demography of Aging.
    20. Easterlin, Richard A., 1987. "Birth and Fortune," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 2, number 9780226180328, April.
    21. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Afflatet, 2016. "The impact of population ageing on public debt. A panel analysis for eighteen european countries," Working Papers 1615, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    2. Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg & Christian Jaag, 2011. "Aging and the Financing of Social Security in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 147(II), pages 181-231, June.
    3. Kobsak Pootrakool & Anak Serichetpong, 2007. "Safeguarding out Nation's Nest Egg: Necessary Reforms to our Social Security System," Working Papers 2007-05, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    4. Stelter, Robert, 2014. "Over-aging: Are present human populations too old?," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 137, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    5. Paula C. Albuquerque & João C. Lopes, 2010. "Economic impacts of ageing: an inter‐industry approach," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(12), pages 970-986, October.
    6. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of population ageing on economic growth: an in-depth bibliometric analysis," FEP Working Papers 505, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    7. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    8. Jorgensen, Ole Hagen, 2011. "Macroeconomic and policy implications of population aging in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5519, The World Bank.
    9. Ammara Cheema, 2013. "Upcoming picture of ageing population: Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 2399-2413, August.
    10. Choi, Horag & Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2008. "Endogenous discounting, the world saving glut and the U.S. current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 30-53, May.
    11. World Bank, 2013. "Europe 2020 Romania : Evidence-based Policies for Productivity, Employment, and Skills Enhancement," World Bank Publications - Reports 16255, The World Bank Group.
    12. Bernardo Lanza Queiroz & Cássio Maldonado Turra & Elisenda Renteria Perez, 2006. "The Opportunities We Cannot Forgo: Economic Consequences Of Population Changes In Brazil," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 32, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    13. Michael Graff & Kam-Ki Tang & Jie Zhang, "undated". "Demography, Financial Openness, National Savings and External Balance," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2008, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    14. Christian Jaag & Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg, 2010. "Pension reform, retirement, and life-cycle unemployment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 17(5), pages 556-585, October.
    15. Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Mr. Mario Catalan, 2008. "Global Aging and Declining World Interest Rates: Macroeconomic Insurance Through Pension Reform in Cyprus," IMF Working Papers 2008/098, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Mr. Erik Lueth, 2008. "Capital Flows and Demographics—An Asian Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2008/008, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A. C. Teixeira & Sandra Silva, 2017. "The Impact Of Population Ageing On Economic Growth: A Bibliometric Survey," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 275-296, June.
    18. Jørgensen, Ole Hagen & Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard, 2009. "Labour supply and retirement policy in an overlapping generations model with stochastic fertility," Discussion Papers on Economics 1/2009, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    19. Philip Lane, 2007. "The Swedish external position and the krona," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 263-279, November.
    20. Michele Gragnolati & Ole Hagen Jorgensen & Romero Rocha & Anna Fruttero, 2011. "Growing Old in an Older Brazil : Implications of Population Ageing on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance, and Service Delivery," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2351.
    21. Stelter, Robert, 2016. "Over-aging — Are present-day human populations too old?," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 116-143.
    22. repec:hal:journl:dumas-00817699 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heinrich Hock & David Weil, 2012. "On the dynamics of the age structure, dependency, and consumption," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 1019-1043, July.
    2. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    3. Kyung‐Mook Lim & David N. Weil, 2003. "The Baby Boom and the Stock Market Boom," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 359-378, September.
    4. Henning Bohn, 2006. "Optimal Private Responses to Demographic Trends: Savings, Bequests and International Mobility," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.),Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research.
    6. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    7. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch, 2006. "Demographischer Wandel und internationale Finanzmärkte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(4), pages 501-517, November.
    8. Attanasio Orazio P. & Kitao Sagiri & Violante Giovanni L., 2006. "Quantifying the Effects of the Demographic Transition in Developing Economies," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-44, April.
    9. Ross S. Guest & Ian M. McDonald, 2010. "Other‐Regarding Uzawa Preferences And Living Standard Catch‐Up," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 87-115, February.
    10. Daniel Liviano & Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod, 2012. "Spatial Exploration of Age Distribution in Catalan Municipalities," ERSA conference papers ersa12p81, European Regional Science Association.
    11. Mantu Kumar Mahalik & John Nkwoma Inekwe & Kuntal Kumar Das & Umakant Dash & Augustine C. Arize, 2022. "Does the pattern of age dependency matter in the promotion of financial development in an emerging economy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(48), pages 5622-5637, October.
    12. Ross Guest & John Bryant & Grant Scobie, 2004. "Population ageing in New Zealand: Implications for living standards and the optimal rate of national saving," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 1-20.
    13. Garry Young, 2002. "The implications of an ageing population for the UK economy," Bank of England working papers 159, Bank of England.
    14. David N. Weil, 1999. "Population Growth, Dependency, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 251-255, May.
    15. Mason, Andrew & Kinugasa, Tomoko, 2008. "East Asian economic development: Two demographic dividends," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-6), pages 389-399.
    16. Akın, Ş. Nuray & Leukhina, Oksana, 2015. "Risk-sharing within families: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 270-284.
    17. Attanasio, O. & Bonfatti, A. & Kitao, S. & Weber, G., 2016. "Global Demographic Trends," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 179-235, Elsevier.
    18. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
    19. Han, Xuehui & Cheng, Yuan, 2020. "Consumption- and productivity-adjusted dependency ratio with household structure heterogeneity in China," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    20. Shinichi Nishiyama, 2004. "Analyzing an Aging Population--A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach: Technical Paper 2004-03," Working Papers 15191, Congressional Budget Office.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    population ageing; demographic dividend; dependency; pensions; Demography;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:506. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Padma Prakash (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.esocialsciences.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.