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Global Imbalances and the Global Saving Glut – A Panel Data Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Anthony Legg

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Nalini Prasad

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Tim Robinson

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

Since the late 1990s there have been substantial changes in the current account balances of a number of economies, most notably a marked widening in the current account deficit of the United States and increased net lending by many developing nations to developed economies. This paper uses panel data to examine what may have contributed to changes in the current account positions of a wide sample of developing and developed economies. In particular, we aim to assess the ‘global saving glut’ hypothesis that financial crises have contributed to the current account surpluses in developing economies. Overall, we find some support for this argument; there is a significant role for financial crises as well as institutional factors in determining current account balances. However, the model captures the broad trends evident in international capital flows for only some of the major regions in our sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony Legg & Nalini Prasad & Tim Robinson, 2007. "Global Imbalances and the Global Saving Glut – A Panel Data Assessment," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2007-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2007-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Graff & Kam-Ki Tang & Jie Zhang, "undated". "Demography, Financial Openness, National Savings and External Balance," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2008, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    2. Murat Cetrez & Yasin Baris Altayligil, 2022. "The Role of Macroeconomic Stability in Current Account Balances," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-2), pages 569-597, December.
    3. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Serranito, Francisco, 2014. "Long-run determinants of current accounts in OECD countries: Lessons for intra-European imbalances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 451-462.
    4. Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu & Signe Krogstrup & Gustavo Adler & Mr. Pau Rabanal & Mai Dao & Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan & Luciana Juvenal & Ms. Carolina Osorio-Buitron & Cyril Rebillard & Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia &, 2019. "The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update," IMF Working Papers 2019/065, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Michael Graff & Kam Ki Tang & Jie Zhang, 2012. "Does Demographic Change Affect the Current Account? A Reconsideration," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, November.
    6. Giancarlo Bertocco, 2014. "Global Saving Glut and Housing Bubble: A Critical Analysis," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 195-218.
    7. Kam Ki Tang & Michael Graff & Jie Zhang, "undated". "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: An Unobserved Components Approach," MRG Discussion Paper Series 4111, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    current accounts; financial crises; capital flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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