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Macroeconomic uncertainty, excess liquidity and stability of money demand (M3) in Australia

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  • Fassil Fanta

Abstract

There has been limited research that explains the breakdown of the relationship between M3 and real activity after the financial deregulation in Australia. This paper contributes to the existing body of literature by examining the stability of money demand as a function of real income, interest rate and economic uncertainty index. We use the Johansen procedure of cointegration to estimate the long-run stationary relationship between an Australian monetary aggregate (M3) and the explanatory variables. We use the GARCH (1, 1) model to construct an economic uncertainty index. When we account for economic uncertainty, our results establish a long-run equilibrium relationship for the post-deregulation and for the entire sample period, and show an improvement in excess liquidity. Our result has an implication for reopening an important policy question on the viability of framing monetary policy around monetary aggregate.

Suggested Citation

  • Fassil Fanta, 2012. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, excess liquidity and stability of money demand (M3) in Australia," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 325-344.
  • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijmefi:v:5:y:2012:i:4:p:325-344
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fassil Fanta, 2013. "Financial Deregulation, Economic Uncertainty and the Stability of Money Demand in Australia," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(4), pages 496-511, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic uncertainty index; money demand; financial deregulation; cointegration; macroeconomic uncertainty; excess liquidity; demand stability; Australia; M3; real income; interest rates; monetary policy; monetary aggregate.;

    JEL classification:

    • M3 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising

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