Money Demand and Economic Uncertainty
The author examines the impact of economic uncertainty on the demand for money. Using a general-equilibrium theory, he argues that in a world inhabited by risk-averse agents, who are constantly making portfolio decisions against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, the demand for money is a function of real income and interest rates, and an index of economic uncertainty. The author then uses the Johansen procedure of cointegration to estimate the long-run stationary relationships between a Canadian monetary aggregate (M1, M1++, and M2++) and the explanatory variables. Allowing for an index of economic uncertainty to enter the short-run dynamics of the estimated model, the author obtains empirical results that show that, in general, increased economic uncertainty leads, in the short run, to a rise in the desired M1 and M1++ balances that agents would like to hold. The impact of economic uncertainty on M2++ is, however, observed to be negative.
|Date of creation:||2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada|
Phone: 613 782-8845
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Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
References listed on IDEAS
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- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Joseph Atta-Mensah, 2004. "The Demand for Money in a Stochastic Environment," Staff Working Papers 04-7, Bank of Canada.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Godbout, M.J. & Van Norden, S., 1996. "Unit-Root Test and Excess Returns," Staff Working Papers 96-10, Bank of Canada.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
- Choi, Woon Gyu & Oh, Seonghwan, 2003. " A Money Demand Function with Output Uncertainty, Monetary Uncertainty, and Financial Innovations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 685-709, October.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
- Ali Dib, 2001.
"An Estimated Canadian DSGE Model with Nominal and Real Rigidities,"
Staff Working Papers
01-26, Bank of Canada.
- Ali Dib, 2003. "An estimated Canadian DSGE model with nominal and real rigidities," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 949-972, November.
- Ireland, Peter N., 1997. "A small, structural, quarterly model for monetary policy evaluation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 83-108, December.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April.
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