Measuring Money Growth When Financial Markets are Changing
This article considers constructing monetary aggregates in the presence of financial market innovations and changes in the relationship between individual assets and output. We propose two procedures for constructing a monetary aggregate with the objective of providing a reliable monetary leading indicator of nominal GDP. In the first, subaggregates discretely switch in and out; in the second, the aggregate's growth is a time-varying weighted average of the growth of the subaggregates, where the weights follow a multivariate random walk. These procedures are used to examine augmenting M2 with stock and/or bond mutual funds. The alternative aggregates are broadly similar to M2, but during 1992â€“1993 they outperform M2.
|Date of creation:||1996|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Monetary Economics|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Littauer Center, Cambridge, MA 02138|
Web page: http://www.economics.harvard.edu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alexander H. Sarris, 1973. "A Bayesian Approach To Estimation Of Time-Varying Regression Coefficients," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 2, number 4, pages 501-523 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barnett, William A., 1980. "Economic monetary aggregates an application of index number and aggregation theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-48, September.
- Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1973. "Tests of an Adaptive Regression Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(2), pages 248-56, May.
- John V. Duca, 1993. "Should bond funds be included in M2?," Research Paper 9321, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1976. "Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Parameter Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 167-84, January.
- Martin Feldstein, 1992. "The Recent Failure of U.S. Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 4236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barnett, William A & Fisher, Douglas & Serletis, Apostolos, 1992. "Consumer Theory and the Demand for Money," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2086-2119, December.
- Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1973. "An Adaptive Regression Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 364-71, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:2799053. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Office for Scholarly Communication)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.