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Measuring Money Growth When Financial Markets Are Changing

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  • James H. Stock
  • Martin Feldstein

Abstract

This paper examines the problem of measuring the growth of a monetary aggregate in the presence of innovations in financial markets and changes in the relationship between individual assets and output. We propose constructing a monetary aggregate so that it is a good leading indicator of nominal GDP; in general the weights on its components vary over time. We investigate two specific procedures: one in which subaggregates discretely switch in and out, and one in which the growth of the aggregate is a time-varying weighted average of the growth of the subaggregates, where the weights follow a random walk. These procedures are used to construct aggregates which potentially augment M2 with stock and/or bond mutual funds. Over 1960-1991, the time-varying aggregates look much like M2, but during 1992-93 the time-varying aggregates outperform M2.

Suggested Citation

  • James H. Stock & Martin Feldstein, 1994. "Measuring Money Growth When Financial Markets Are Changing," NBER Working Papers 4888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4888
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    Cited by:

    1. William A. Barnett & Yi Liu, 1996. "The CAPM-Extended Divisia Monetary Aggregate with Exact Tracking under Risk," Finance 9602001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Pierre L. Siklos & Andrew G. Barton, 2001. "Monetary aggregates as indicators of economic activity in Canada: empirical evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Browne, F.X. & Fagan, G. & Henry, J., 1997. "Money Demand in EU Countries : A Survey," Papers 7, European Monetary Institute.
    4. William A. Barnett & Milka Kirova & Meenakshi Pasupathy, 1996. "Technology Modeling: Curvature is not Sufficient for Regularity," Econometrics 9602002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Jun 1999.
    5. Meixing DAI, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," Working Papers of BETA 2009-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    6. Feldstein, Martin & Stock, James H., 1996. "Measuring money growth when financial markets are changing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 3-27, February.
    7. John V. Duca, 1994. "Would the addition of bond or equity funds make M2 a better indicator of nominal GDP?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 1-14.
    8. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    9. Carlson, John B. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Rasche, Robert H., 2000. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 345-383, October.
    10. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2005. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(3), pages 570-585, July.
    11. William A. Barnett, 2000. "Which Road Leads to Stable Money Demand?," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 577-592, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    12. N. Kundan Kishor & Levis A. Kochin, 2007. "The Success Of The Fed And The Death Of Monetarism," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 56-70, January.
    13. David C. Parsley & Helen A. Popper, 1998. "Exchange Rates, Domestic Prices, and Central Bank Actions: Recent U.S. Experience," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(4), pages 957-972, April.
    14. William A. Barnett & Yi Liu & Haiyang Xu & Mark Jensen, 1996. "The CAPM Risk Adjustment Needed for Exact Aggregation over Financial Assets," Econometrics 9602003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Leigh Drake & Adrian Fleissig, 2004. "Admissible Monetary Aggregates and UK Inflation Targeting," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 2, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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