IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measuring Money Growth When Financial Markets Are Changing


  • James H. Stock
  • Martin Feldstein


This paper examines the problem of measuring the growth of a monetary aggregate in the presence of innovations in financial markets and changes in the relationship between individual assets and output. We propose constructing a monetary aggregate so that it is a good leading indicator of nominal GDP; in general the weights on its components vary over time. We investigate two specific procedures: one in which subaggregates discretely switch in and out, and one in which the growth of the aggregate is a time-varying weighted average of the growth of the subaggregates, where the weights follow a random walk. These procedures are used to construct aggregates which potentially augment M2 with stock and/or bond mutual funds. Over 1960-1991, the time-varying aggregates look much like M2, but during 1992-93 the time-varying aggregates outperform M2.

Suggested Citation

  • James H. Stock & Martin Feldstein, 1994. "Measuring Money Growth When Financial Markets Are Changing," NBER Working Papers 4888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4888
    Note: IFM ME EFG

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Athanasios Orphanides & Brian Reid & David H. Small, 1994. "The empirical properties of a monetary aggregate that adds bond and stock funds to M2," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 31-51.
    2. William A. Barnett & Douglas Fisher & Apostolos Serletis, 2006. "Consumer Theory and the Demand for Money," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Money And The Economy, chapter 1, pages 3-43 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lee, Inpyo & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "Optimal changepoint tests for normal linear regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 9-38, January.
    4. Rotemberg, Julio J & Driscoll, John C & Poterba, James M, 1995. "Money, Output, and Prices: Evidence from a New Monetary Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 67-83, January.
    5. Alexander H. Sarris, 1973. "A Bayesian Approach To Estimation Of Time-Varying Regression Coefficients," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 2, number 4, pages 501-523 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Feldstein, Martin & Stock, James H., 1996. "Measuring money growth when financial markets are changing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 3-27, February.
    7. Paul Fisher & Suzanne Hudson & Mahmood Pradhan, 1993. "Divisia Indices for Money: An Appraisal of Theory and Practice," Bank of England working papers 9, Bank of England.
    8. Barnett, William A., 1980. "Economic monetary aggregates an application of index number and aggregation theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-48, September.
    9. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1973. "Tests of an Adaptive Regression Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(2), pages 248-256, May.
    10. Robert Darin & Robert L. Hetzel, 1994. "A shift-adjusted M2 indicator for monetary policy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 25-48.
    11. Bennett T. McCallum, 1989. "Targets, Indicators, and Instruments of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 3047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1973. "An Adaptive Regression Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 364-371, June.
    13. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
    14. Spindt, Paul A, 1985. "Money Is What Money Does: Monetary Aggregation and the Equation of Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 175-204, February.
    15. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
    16. John V. Duca, 1993. "Should bond funds be included in M2?," Working Papers 9321, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    17. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    18. Milton Friedman & Anna Jacobson Schwartz, 1970. "Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie70-1, April.
    19. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1976. "Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Parameter Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 167-184, January.
    20. Bai, Jushan, 1995. "Least Absolute Deviation Estimation of a Shift," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 403-436, June.
    21. Martin Feldstein & James H. Stock, 1994. "The Use of a Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy, pages 7-69 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. William A. Barnett & Yi Liu, 1996. "The CAPM-Extended Divisia Monetary Aggregate with Exact Tracking under Risk," Finance 9602001, EconWPA.
    2. William A. Barnett & Yi Liu & Haiyang Xu & Mark Jensen, 1996. "The CAPM Risk Adjustment Needed for Exact Aggregation over Financial Assets," Econometrics 9602003, EconWPA.
    3. Leigh Drake & Adrian Fleissig, 2004. "Admissible Monetary Aggregates and UK Inflation Targeting," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 2, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    4. Browne, F.X. & Fagan, G. & Henry, J., 1997. "Money Demand in EU Countries : A Survey," Papers 7, European Monetary Institute.
    5. William A. Barnett & Milka Kirova & Meenakshi Pasupathy, 1996. "Technology Modeling: Curvature is not Sufficient for Regularity," Econometrics 9602002, EconWPA, revised 24 Jun 1999.
    6. Barnett, William A, 1997. "Which Road Leads to Stable Money Demand?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 1171-1185, July.
    7. Carlson, John B. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Rasche, Robert H., 2000. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 345-383, October.
    8. Meixing DAI, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," Working Papers of BETA 2009-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    9. Feldstein, Martin & Stock, James H., 1996. "Measuring money growth when financial markets are changing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 3-27, February.
    10. John V. Duca, 1994. "Would the addition of bond or equity funds make M2 a better indicator of nominal GDP?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 1-14.
    11. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    12. Pierre L. Siklos & Andrew G. Barton, 2001. "Monetary aggregates as indicators of economic activity in Canada: empirical evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-17, February.
    13. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2005. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(3), pages 570-585, July.
    14. N. Kundan Kishor & Levis A. Kochin, 2007. "The Success Of The Fed And The Death Of Monetarism," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 56-70, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4888. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.