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Inflation in South Africa: An Assessment of Alternative Inflation Models

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  • Johannes Fedderke
  • Yang Liu

Abstract

We consider the relative empirical performance of a range of inflation models for South Africa. Model coverage is of Phillips curve, New Keynesian Phillips curve, monetarist and structural models of inflation. Our core findings are that the single most robust covariate of inflation is unit labour cost. We further decompose unit labour cost into changes in the nominal wage and real labour productivity. The principal association is a strong positive relationship between inflation and nominal wages, while improvements in real labour productivity report only a relatively weak negative association with inflation. Supply‐side shocks also consistently report an association with inflation. As to demand‐side shocks, the output gap does not return a robust statistical association with inflation. Instead, it is growth in the money supply and government expenditure which return robust and theoretically consistent associations with inflationary pressure.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Fedderke & Yang Liu, 2018. "Inflation in South Africa: An Assessment of Alternative Inflation Models," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(2), pages 197-230, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:86:y:2018:i:2:p:197-230
    DOI: 10.1111/saje.12192
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Loewald & Rudi Steinbach & Jeffrey Rakgalakane, 2025. "Less risk and more reward revising South Africas inflation target," Working Papers 11079, South African Reserve Bank.
    2. Christopher Loewald & Nic Spearman Andreas Wrgtter, 2023. "Less sacrifice from collective to competitive price coordination in the South African economy," Working Papers 11049, South African Reserve Bank.
    3. Christopher Loewald & David Faulkner & Konstantin Makrelov, 2020. "Time consistency and economic growth a case study of south african macroeconomic policy," Working Papers 10421, South African Reserve Bank.
    4. Merrino, Serena, 2022. "Monetary policy and wage inequality in South Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    5. Chloe Allison & Neryvia Pillay, 2024. "Cash transfers and prices what is the impact of social welfare on prices," Working Papers 11057, South African Reserve Bank.
    6. Hartwig, Jochen, 2020. "Not Evidence for Baumol’s Cost Disease. A Reply to Atanda and Reed (International Journal for Re-Views in Empirical Economics, 2020)," International Journal for Re-Views in Empirical Economics (IREE), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 4, pages 1-4.
    7. Tumisang Loate & Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2021. "Sailing into the Wind evaluating the near future of Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Papers 11006, South African Reserve Bank.
    8. Alain Kabundi & Asi Mbelu, 2018. "Has the Exchange Rate Pass‐Through changed in South Africa?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(3), pages 339-360, September.
    9. Dladla, Pholile & Malikane, Christopher, 2022. "Inflation dynamics in an emerging market: The case of South Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 262-271.
    10. Byron Botha & Lauren Kuhn & Daan Steenkamp, 2020. "Is the Phillips curve framework still useful for understanding inflation dynamics in South Africa," Working Papers 10211, South African Reserve Bank.
    11. Tumala, Mohammed M & Olubusoye, Olusanya E & Yaaba, Baba N & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Akanbi, Olawale B, 2017. "Forecasting Nigerian Inflation using Model Averaging methods: Modelling Frameworks to Central Banks," MPRA Paper 88754, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2018.
    12. Anis Foresto & Monique Reid & Jeffrey Rakgalakane, 2025. "State dependence of the Phillips curve what does this mean for monetary policy," Working Papers 11080, South African Reserve Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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