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The Nonlinear Phillips Curve and Inflation Forecast Targeting - Symmetric Versus Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules

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  • Schaling, E.

Abstract

We extend the Svensson (1997a) inflation forecast targeting framework with a convex Phillips curve. We derive an asymmetric target rule, that implies a higher level of nominal interest rates than the Svensson (1997a) forward looking version of the reaction function popularised by Taylor (1993). Extending the analysis with uncertainty about the output gap, we find that uncertainty induces a further upward bias in nominal interest rates. Thus, the implications of uncertainty for optimal policy are the opposite of standard multiplier uncertainty analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Schaling, E., 1998. "The Nonlinear Phillips Curve and Inflation Forecast Targeting - Symmetric Versus Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules," Discussion Paper 1998-136, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:d6b03994-a406-4ac5-9c4d-1fc15ca05f3e
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1997. "Optimal Inflation Targets, "Conservative" Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 98-114, March.
    2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1997. "Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number rome97-1, October.
    4. Douglas Laxton & Guy Meredith & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation: Evidence and Policy Implications," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 344-374, June.
    5. Charles Nolan & Eric Schaling, 1996. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Central Bank Accountability," Bank of England working papers 54, Bank of England.
    6. Bankim Chadha & Paul R. Masson & Guy Meredith, 2019. "Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 3, pages 57-99, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Laxton, Douglas & Rose, David & Tambakis, Demosthenes, 1999. "The U.S. Phillips curve: The case for asymmetry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1459-1485, September.
    8. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
    9. Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H. (ed.), 1997. "Reducing Inflation," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226724843, December.
    10. Peter Clark & Douglas Laxton & David Rose, 1996. "Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation Nexus," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 216-251, March.
    11. Peter B. Clark & Douglas Laxton & David Rose, 1995. "Capacity Constraints, Inflation and the Transmission Mechanism; Forward-Looking Versus Myopic Policy Rules," IMF Working Papers 95/75, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Guy Debelle & Douglas Laxton, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 249-282, June.
    13. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-167, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation targets; nonlinearities; asymmetries; stochastic control;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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