Inflation and Its Unpredictability--Theory and Empirical Evidence
The effect of inflation on its unpredictability is theoretically ambiguous. Arthur M. Okun (1971) and Milton Friedman (1977) suggest that the effect is positive. However, a negative effect may exist if higher inflation induces the relevant economic agents to invest more in generating accurate predictions. This paper provides a theoretical model to analyze these opposing arguments and specifies the conditions under which a positive effect exists. New survey data regarding inflationary expectations in Israel are used to empirically examine the model. The data, which allow single hypothesis testing of the relationship, reveal a positive effect only in periods of high inflation, indicating a possible threshold effect. Copyright 1993 by Ohio State University Press.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 25 (1993)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
- Pourgerami, Abbas & Maskus, Keith E., 1987. "The effects of inflation on the predictability of price changes in Latin America: Some estimates and policy implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 287-290, February.
- Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
- Glezakos, Constantine & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 1984. "Price instability and inflation: The Latin American case," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 12(7), pages 755-758, July.
- Levi, Maurice D & Makin, John H, 1980. "Inflation Uncertainty and the Phillips Curve: Some Empirical Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1022-1027, December.
- A. R. Pagan & A. D. Hall & P. K. Trivedi, 1983. "Assessing the Variability of Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 585-596.
- Ibrahim, I B & Williams, Raburn M, 1978. "Price Unpredictability and Monetary Standards: A Comment on Klein's Measure of Price Uncertainty," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(3), pages 431-37, July.
- Demetriades, Panikos, 1988. "Macroeconomic aspects of the correlation between the level and variability of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 121-124.
- Glezakos, Constantine & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 1987. "The relationship between the rate of inflation and its unpredictability in high inflation Latin American countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 291-293, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:25:y:1993:i:4:p:709-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.