Monetary Policy in Russia: Identifying exchange rate shocks
Russian monetary policy has failed persistently to achieve sustained low inflation, both in absolute terms and relative to the peer group of countries similarly exiting from Soviet-style central planning. This paper explores the reasons for this state of affairs by analysing the kind of monetary policy that has been pursued by the central bank during the period 1995 to 2009. Our contribution is to search for a possible transmission channel between the real interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, output growth and foreign reserve growth, after having controlled for the effect of oil price inflation. Using a vector autoregressive model in error-correction form and using sign restrictions methodology, we show that the monetary authorities' failure to abate double-digit inflation appears to be driven by the policy of exchange rate targeting, as reflected in our identified exchange rate shocks.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Uhlig, Harald, 2005.
"What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Uhlig's VAR identification technique," Statistical Software Components RTZ00163, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tom Doan, . "UHLIGFUNCS: RATS procedure to compute criteria for Uhlig sign-restricted shocks," Statistical Software Components RTS00217, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997.
"Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
- Franziska Ohnsorge & Nienke Oomes, 2005.
"Money Demand and Inflation in Dollarized Economies: The Case of Russia,"
IMF Working Papers
05/144, International Monetary Fund.
- Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005. "Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.
- Vdovichenko, Anna G. & Voronina, Victoria G., 2006. "Monetary policy rules and their application in Russia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 145-162, June.
- Choudhry, T., 1998. "Another visit to the Cagan model of money demand: the latest Russian experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 355-376, April.
- Taylor, Mark P, 1991.
"The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand Revisited,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 327-51, August.
- Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lucio, 2005.
"Monetary policy rules for Russia,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 484-499, September.
- Starr, Martha A., 2005. "Does money matter in the CIS? Effects of monetary policy on output and prices," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 441-461, September.
- James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration,"
1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
- MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
- Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- Christopher J. Erceg and Andrew T. Levin, 2001.
"Imperfect Credibility and Inflation Persistence,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2001
19, Society for Computational Economics.
- Kutan, Ali M. & Brada, Josef C., 1999.
"The evolution of monetary policy in transition economies,"
ZEI Working Papers
B 19-1999, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
- Ali M. Kutan & Josef C. Brada, 2000. "The evolution of monetary policy in transition economies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 31-40.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
- Molodtsova, Tanya & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2008. "Taylor rules with real-time data: A tale of two countries and one exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S63-S79, October.
- Mark A. Wynne & Erasmus K. Kersting, 2007. "Openness and inflation," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
- Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard, 2007. "Credibility of CIS exchange rate policies -- A technical trader's view," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 50-66, March.
- Domac, Ilker & Yucel, Eray M., 2004.
"What triggers inflation in emerging market economics?,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3376, The World Bank.
- Ilker Domaç & Eray M. Yücel, 2005. "What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 141-164, April.
- Ilker Domac & Eray M. Yucel, 2003. "What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?," Working Papers 0307, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2006. "Does inflation or currency depreciation drive monetary policy in Russia?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 163-179, June.
- Christos Papazoglou & Eric J. Pentecost, 2003.
"The Dynamic Adjustment of a Transition Economy in the Early Stages of Transformation,"
03, Bank of Greece.
- Papazoglou, Christos & Pentecost, Eric J., 2004. "The dynamic adjustment of a transition economy in the early stages of transformation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 547-561, September.
- John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
- Phylaktis, Kate & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Money Demand, the Cagan Model and the Inflation Tax: Some Latin American Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 32-37, February.
- Peter Oppenheimer & Brigitte Granville, 2001. "Russiaâ€™s Post-Communist Economy," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 2(1), pages 149-168, January.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
- Basdevant, Olivier & Hall, Stephen G., 2002. "The 1998 Russian crisis: could the exchange rate volatility have predicted it?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 151-168, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:1:p:432-444. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.