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The effects of monetary policy in Russia: A factor-augmented VAR approach

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  • Ono, Shigeki

Abstract

Using factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) models, this study examines the effects of the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) monetary policy on economic indicators. The sample includes 39 monthly macroeconomic series and covers the period 2004 through 2019. The analysis revealed counter-intuitive results, with consumer prices often responding positively to a contractionary monetary policy shock, and vice versa; this is related to the impossible trinity. The ruble exchange devaluation was accompanied by price increases through an import price pass-through, so the CBR chose exchange stability and free capital flows out of the impossible trinity, temporarily subordinating monetary policy independence. Such independence was limited, possibly due to Russia’s high dependence on energy exports and the link between energy prices and the exchange rate. The findings indicate no direct evidence of an effect of monetary policy tightening on the decrease in consumer prices; rather, the attenuation of ruble depreciation may have helped to stabilize prices, even after the CBR adopted inflation targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Ono, Shigeki, 2021. "The effects of monetary policy in Russia: A factor-augmented VAR approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:45:y:2021:i:3:s0939362521000522
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2021.100904
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; FAVAR; Russia; Impulse responses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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