Has the effect of monetary policy changedduring 1990s?: An Application of Identified Markov Switching Vector Autoregression to the Impulse Response Analysis When the Nominal Interest Rate is Almost Zero
I study whether the effect of monetary policy has changed during 1990s and the zero bound of nominal interest rate may have some distortional effect on macroeconomic dynamics. In order to check the existence of structural change without any prior knowledge on break point and to be able to compare the effect of monetary policy before and after the break without any distortion from the difference in degrees of freedom caused by the different estimated periods, the identi ed Markov switching vector autoregression model is estimated. The result shows that there is a structural change in 1990s and the effect of monetary policy has become weaker since then. As obvious, traditional interest rate channel is not functioning and therefore the role of monetary expansion is limited now. Another intriguing by-product is that the conventional puzzles with identi ed VAR, namely price puzzle and liquidity puzzle, are often re- solved in one regime, but not in the whole sample. This nding may have some implication for the cause of those puzzles, the coexistence of equi- librium dynamics and disequilibrium dynamics in economic time series.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-48, November.
- McCallum, Bennett T, 2000.
"Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 870-904, November.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Theoretical analysis regarding a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 870-935.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 7677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ramana Ramaswamy & Christel Rendu, 2000. "Japan's Stagnant Nineties: A Vector Autoregression Retrospective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 5.
- Ehrmann , Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2001.
"Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model,"
Research Discussion Papers
11/2001, Bank of Finland.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2003. "Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 295-299, March.
- Miyao, Ryuzo, 2000. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Japan: A Break in the 1990s?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 366-384, December.
- Hanson, Michael S., 2004. "The "price puzzle" reconsidered," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1385-1413, October.
- Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June.
- Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:03-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Atsuko SUZUKI)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.