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Bank lending channel in Russia: A TVP-FAVAR approach

Author

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  • Borzykh, Olga

    () (Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia), Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

Implementation of inflation targeting by the Bank of Russia depends on the effectiveness of the channels of monetary policy transmission mechanism. In this article we use a TVP-FAVAR model to examine the bank lending channel. This channel describes the connection between monetary policy impulses and the amount of bank loans that are among the main sources of investments in Russia. In order to answer the main question we analyze the connection between the amount of bank loans and the money market interest rate MIACR which is the main operational target of the Bank of Russia. The use of TVP-FAVAR model allowed to solve a problem of omitted variables and to take into account gradual changes which occurred in the Russian economy during the period from January 2004 to December 2015. It is shown that the bank lending channel works only through the group of big banks that does not include biggest state-owned banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Borzykh, Olga, 2016. "Bank lending channel in Russia: A TVP-FAVAR approach," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 43, pages 96-117.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0299
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    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2016_43_096-117.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    2. Tuuli Juurikkala & Alexei Karas & Laura Solanko, 2011. "The Role of Banks in Monetary Policy Transmission: Empirical Evidence from Russia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 109-121, February.
    3. Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Using Time-varying Parameter Dynamic Factor Models-super-," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(2), pages 157-179, April.
    4. Lomivorotov, Rodion, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of monetary policy in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 38(2), pages 41-63.
    5. Deryugina, Elena B. & Ponomarenko, Alexey A., 2011. "Identifying structural shocks behind loan supply fluctuations in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    6. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    7. Sergey Drobyshevsky & Pavel Trunin & M. Kamenskikh, 2008. "Analysis of Transmission Mechanisms of Money and Credit Policy in Russia's Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 116P.
    8. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
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    1. repec:nos:voprec:2017-07-4 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; bank lending channel; the Russian banks; groups of banks; TVP-FAVAR approach;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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