IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/apltrx/0403.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Disentanglement of natural interest rate shocks and monetary policy shocks nexus

Author

Listed:
  • Kurovskiy, Gleb

    (Bank of Russia; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow;)

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel procedure for uniting the identification of monetary policy shocks and natural interest rate shocks. The Russian economy of the 2014–2019 inflation-targeting period is an empirical application of the approach. The model results allow us to make a number of policy conclusions: (i) unlike other papers on the Russian economy there is no output or price puzzles; (ii) over the past six years, monetary policy in Russia has become more predictable; (iii) the monetary transmission period from the key rate to inflation is six to eight months; (iv) monetary policy explains almost 20% of the inflation dynamics, while the natural interest rate explains around 40% of inflation; (v) the estimated natural interest rate declined from 2014 to 2019 following the global trends of declining interest rates; and (vi) the Bank of Russia follows mandate and reacts to inflation under the monetary policy feedback rule without responding to output fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Kurovskiy, Gleb, 2020. "Disentanglement of natural interest rate shocks and monetary policy shocks nexus," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 59, pages 128-143.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0403
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2020_59_128-143.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    2. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    3. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    4. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    5. Arias, Jonas E. & Caldara, Dario & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2019. "The systematic component of monetary policy in SVARs: An agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-13.
    6. Harald Uhlig, 2004. "Do Technology Shocks Lead to a Fall in Total Hours Worked?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 361-371, 04/05.
    7. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    8. Jeffery D. Amato, 2005. "The Role of the Natural Rate of Interest in Monetary Policy," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 51(4), pages 729-755.
    9. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2015. "Measuring the natural rate of interest redux," Working Paper Series 2015-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Barsky, Robert B. & Sims, Eric R., 2011. "News shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 273-289.
    11. Borzykh, Olga, 2016. "Bank lending channel in Russia: A TVP-FAVAR approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 43, pages 96-117.
    12. Jeffery D. Amato, 2005. "The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 171, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Pestova, Anna A. (Пестова, Анна) & Mamonov, Mikhail E. (Мамонов, Михаил) & Rostova, Natalia A. (Ростова, Наталья), 2019. "Monetary Policy Shocks in the Russian Economy and Their Macroeconomic Effects [Шоки Процентной Политики Банка России И Оценка Их Макроэкономических Эффектов]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 4, pages 48-75, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kramkov, Viacheslav & Maksimov, Andrey, 2024. "Monetary surprises and term structure of interest rates: Identification through heteroscedasticity," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 74, pages 5-34.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kurovskiy, Gleb, 2019. "Disentanglement of natural interest rate shocks and monetary policy shocks nexus," MPRA Paper 97547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Andrea Berardi & Michael Markovich & Alberto Plazzi & Andrea Tamoni, 2021. "Mind the (Convergence) Gap: Bond Predictability Strikes Back!," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7888-7911, December.
    3. Krustev, Georgi, 2019. "The natural rate of interest and the financial cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 193-210.
    4. Sheng Zhu & Ella Kavanagh & Jun Gao, 2024. "The natural real rate of interest and monetary policy: New evidence for the US," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3023-3039, July.
    5. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Álvarez, 2008. "La tasa de interés natural en Colombia," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 164-201, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    6. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    7. Andrea Pescatori & Jarkko Turunen, 2016. "Lower for Longer: Neutral Rate in the U.S," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 708-731, November.
    8. Harendra Behera & Sitikantha Pattanaik & Rajesh Kavediya, 2015. "Natural Interest Rate: Assessing the Stance of India’s Monetary Policy under Uncertainty," Working Papers id:7654, eSocialSciences.
    9. Ceballos, Luis & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Romero, Damian, 2025. "A post-pandemic new normal for interest rates in emerging bond markets? Evidence from Chile," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    10. Romain Bouis & Łukasz Rawdanowicz & Jean-Paul Renne & Shingo Watanabe & Ane Kathrine Christensen, 2013. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Financial Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1081, OECD Publishing.
    11. Axel A. Weber & Wolfgang Lemke & Andreas Worms, 2008. "How useful is the concept of the natural real rate of interest for monetary policy?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 32(1), pages 49-63, January.
    12. Goto, Eiji, 2023. "International comovement of r∗: A case study of the G7 countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
    14. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    15. Cosmas Dery & Apostolos Serletis, 2021. "Disentangling the Effects of Uncertainty, Monetary Policy and Leverage Shocks on the Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1029-1065, October.
    16. Bofinger, Peter & Haas, Thomas, 2023. "R-star: A new approach to estimate the polar star of monetary policy," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 106, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    17. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Natural Rate of Interest with Endogenous Growth, Financial Frictions and Trend Inflation," MPRA Paper 57212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ladislav Wintr & Paolo Guarda & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2005. "Estimating the natural interest rate for the euro area and Luxembourg," BCL working papers 15, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    19. Hack, Lukas & Istrefi, Klodiana & Meier, Matthias, 2023. "Identification of systematic monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2851, European Central Bank.
    20. Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2016. "Estimating the Indian natural interest rate: A semi-structural approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 141-153.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    SVAR; monetary policy; natural interest rate; Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anatoly Peresetsky (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.