IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gde/journl/gde_v62_n2_p171-210.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-Run Growth and Income Distribution: Evidence for Italy and the US

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Morana

    (Università del Piemonte orientale)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the long-run growth process in Italy and the US over the period 1920-2001, using a common trends model. Coherent with the neoclassical growth model, we find that long-run economic growth can be explained by two permanent shocks, namely a technological shock and a labour supply shock. Interestingly, technological progress has an initial negative impact on the wage share, and a successive positive, but transitory impact on income equality for Italy, and a permanent and positive impact for the US, pointing to a cycle in income distribution. On the other hand, the labour supply shock has a transitory and positive impact on the wage share for Italy, and a permanent and negative impact on the wage share for the US, possibly reflecting different labour market institutional characteristics. Hence, fluctuations in the distribution of income should be expected as a consequence of economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Morana, 2003. "Long-Run Growth and Income Distribution: Evidence for Italy and the US," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 62(2), pages 171-210, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gde:journl:gde_v62_n2_p171-210
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://ftp.gde.unibocconi.it/gde_articles/2003/GDE_V62_N2_P171-210.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bertola, Giuseppe, 1993. "Factor Shares and Savings in Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1184-1198, December.
    2. Panizza, Ugo, 2002. "Income Inequality and Economic Growth: Evidence from American Data," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 25-41, March.
    3. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June.
    4. Roberto Perotti, 1993. "Political Equilibrium, Income Distribution, and Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(4), pages 755-776.
    5. Alberto Alesina & Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 465-490.
    6. Lee, K. & Psaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1995. "Growth and Convergence: A Multi-Country Empirical Analysis of the Solow Growth Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9531, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Silvia Fabiani & Sandro Trento, 1999. "La crescita economica italiana fra Marx e Kuznets: alcune considerazioni," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 317-338.
    8. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    9. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    10. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1992. "Growth, distribution and politics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 593-602, April.
    11. Stefano Scarpetta & Andrea Bassanini & Dirk Pilat & Paul Schreyer, 2000. "Economic Growth in the OECD Area: Recent Trends at the Aggregate and Sectoral Level," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 248, OECD Publishing.
    12. David Cass, 1965. "Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(3), pages 233-240.
    13. Neusser, Klaus, 1991. "Testing the long-run implications of the neoclassical growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 3-37, February.
    14. Carlo Milana & Alessandro Zeli, 2002. "The Contribution of ICT to Production Efficiency in Italy: Firm-Level Evidence Using Data Envelopment Analysis and Econometric Estimations," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2002/13, OECD Publishing.
    15. Oliver J. Blanchard, 1997. "The Medium Run," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 89-158.
    16. Cecilia Garcia-Penalosa & Eve Caroli & Philippe Aghion, 1999. "Inequality and Economic Growth: The Perspective of the New Growth Theories," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1615-1660, December.
    17. Hongyi Li & Heng‐fu Zou, 1998. "Income Inequality is not Harmful for Growth: Theory and Evidence," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 318-334, October.
    18. Alessandra Colecchia & Paul Schreyer, 2001. "ICT Investment and Economic Growth in the 1990s: Is the United States a Unique Case? A Comparative Study of Nine OECD Countries," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2001/7, OECD Publishing.
    19. Binder, M. & Pesaran, M.H., 1996. "Stochastic Growth," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9615, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    20. Bertola, Giuseppe, 1996. "Factor shares in OLG models of growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1541-1560, November.
    21. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    22. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10091 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2002. "Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weil Seriously," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1994. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 600-621, June.
    25. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 1999. "Measuring Core Inflation in Italy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 58(3-4), pages 301-328, December.
    26. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Growth, Income Distribution, and Democracy: What the Data Say," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 149-187, June.
    27. P. G. Ardeni, 1993. "Crescita e fluttuazioni nell'economia italiana alla luce delle recenti teorie della crescita," Working Papers 187, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    28. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M Hashem, 1999. "Stochastic Growth Models and Their Econometric Implications," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 139-183, June.
    29. Benhabib, Jess & Rustichini, Aldo, 1991. "Social Conflict, Growth and Income Distribution," Working Papers 91-22, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    30. Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-394, Oct.-Dec..
    31. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    32. Li, Hongyi & Zou, Heng-fu, 1998. "Income Inequality Is Not Harmful for Growth: Theory and Evidence," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 318-334, October.
    33. Kristin J. Forbes, 2000. "A Reassessment of the Relationship between Inequality and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 869-887, September.
    34. Lee, Woojin & Roemer, John E, 1998. "Income Distribution, Redistributive Politics, and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 217-240, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Morana, Claudio, 2002. "An empirical investigation of long-run growth in the UK," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 49-70, March.
    2. Adalgiso Amendola & Roberto Dell�Anno, 2014. "Income inequality and economic growth: an empirical investigation in Mediterranean countries," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 68(2), pages 35-58, April-Jun.
    3. Panizza, Ugo, 2002. "Income Inequality and Economic Growth: Evidence from American Data," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 25-41, March.
    4. Christophe Ehrhart, 2009. "The effects of inequality on growth: a survey of the theoretical and empirical literature," Working Papers 107, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    5. Enea Baselgia & Reto Foellmi, 2022. "Inequality and growth: a review on a great open debate in economics," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-5, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Ugo Panizza, 1999. "Desigualdad del ingreso y crecimiento económico: elementos de juicio de datos de USA," Research Department Publications 4179, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    7. Roberto Dell'Anno & Adalgiso Amendola, 2015. "Social Exclusion and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation in European Economies," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(2), pages 274-301, June.
    8. Mdingi, Kholeka & Ho, Sin-Yu, 2023. "Income inequality and economic growth: An empirical investigation in South Africa," MPRA Paper 117733, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Seher Gülşah Topuz, 2022. "The Relationship Between Income Inequality and Economic Growth: Are Transmission Channels Effective?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1177-1231, August.
    10. Günther Rehme, 2007. "Education, Economic Growth and Measured Income Inequality," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(295), pages 493-514, August.
    11. Shinhye Chang & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2018. "Causality Between Per Capita Real GDP and Income Inequality in the U.S.: Evidence from a Wavelet Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 269-289, January.
    12. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Wei Ma & Philton Makena, 2021. "Income inequality and economic growth: A re‐examination of theory and evidence," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 737-757, May.
    13. Adnen Ben Nasr & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Seyi Saint Akadiri, 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Inequality on Per Capita Real GDP of the United States," Working Papers 201820, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Ademola Obafemi Young, 2019. "Growth Impacts of Income Inequality: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(3), pages 226-262, December.
    15. Charles-Coll, Jorge A., 2010. "The optimal rate of inequality: A framework for the relationship between income inequality and economic growth," MPRA Paper 28921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Adnen Ben Nasr & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Seyi Saint Akadiri, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of inequality on real output levels of the United States," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(1), pages 47-69, March.
    17. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Inequality, Growth, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 7038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Mikulas Luptacik & Bernhard Mahlberg, 2018. "Revisiting the Efficiency-Equity Trade-off: A Muli-objective Linear Problem combined with an extended Leontief Input Output Model," Department of Economic Policy Working Paper Series 016, Department of Economic Policy, Faculty of National Economy, University of Economics in Bratislava.
    19. Thomas Leoni & Wolfgang Pollan, 2003. "The Impact of Inequality on Economic Growth," WIFO Working Papers 211, WIFO.
    20. Jakub Bartak & Łukasz Jabłoński, 2020. "Inequality and growth: What comes from the different inequality measures?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 185-212, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov switching; common trends; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gde:journl:gde_v62_n2_p171-210. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Erika Somma (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.gde.unibocconi.it/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.