IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring Core Inflation in Italy


  • Fabio C. Bagliano

    () (University of Turin)

  • Claudio Morana

    (Università del Piemonte Orientale)


In this paper the long-run trend in CPI inflation (core inflation) for Italy is estimate over the 1962-1997 period within the frame work of a multivariate common trends model. In this framework core inflation is directly linked to money and wage growth and interpreted as the long-run forecast of inflation. This measure displays several desirable properties: lower variability than observed inflation, forecasting power, robustness to the estimation sample and economic interpretability.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 1999. "Measuring Core Inflation in Italy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 58(3-4), pages 301-328, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gde:journl:gde_v58_n3-4_p301-328

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Parigi, Giuseppe & Schlitzer, Giuseppe, 1997. "Predicting consumption of Italian households by means of survey indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 197-209, June.
    2. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June.
    3. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1992. "Growth, distribution and politics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 593-602, April.
    4. Blau, Francine D & Kahn, Lawrence M, 1996. "Wage Structure and Gender Earnings Differentials: An International Comparison," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(250), pages 29-62, Suppl..
    5. Rossi, Nicola & Toniolo, Gianni & Vecchi, Giovanni, 1999. "Is the Kuznets Curve Still Alive? Evidence from Italy's Household Budgets, 1881-1961," CEPR Discussion Papers 2140, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 307-337, November.
    7. Cesari, R. & Panetta, F., 1998. "Style, Fees and Performance of Italian Equity Funds," Papers 325, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    8. Peter Gottschalk & Timothy M. Smeeding, 1997. "Cross-National Comparisons of Earnings and Income Inequality," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 633-687, June.
    9. Mills, Jeffrey A & Zandvakili, Sourushe, 1997. "Statistical Inference via Bootstrapping for Measures of Inequality," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 133-150, March-Apr.
    10. Perotti, Roberto, 1994. "Income distribution and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 827-835, April.
    11. Clarke, George R. G., 1995. "More evidence on income distribution and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 403-427, August.
    12. Christopher Erickson & Andrea Ichino, 1995. "Wage Differentials in Italy: Market Forces, Institutions, and Inflation," NBER Chapters,in: Differences and Changes in Wage Structures, pages 265-306 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1994. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 600-621, June.
    14. Richard B. Freeman & Lawrence F. Katz, 1995. "Differences and Changes in Wage Structures," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number free95-1, January.
    15. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Growth, Income Distribution, and Democracy: What the Data Say," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 149-187, June.
    16. Pissarides, Christopher A. & Weber, Guglielmo, 1989. "An expenditure-based estimate of Britain's black economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 17-32, June.
    17. Blau, Francine D & Kahn, Lawrence M, 1996. "International Differences in Male Wage Inequality: Institutions versus Market Forces," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 791-836, August.
    18. Sutherland, H., 1995. "Static Microsimulation Models in Europe: A Survey," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9523, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    19. Cowell, Frank A., 1989. "Sampling variance and decomposable inequality measures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-41, September.
    20. Frank A. Cowell & Fatemeh Mehta, 1982. "The Estimation and Interpolation of Inequality Measures," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 273-290.
    21. Charles M. Beach & Russell Davidson, 1983. "Distribution-Free Statistical Inference with Lorenz Curves and Income Shares," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 723-735.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Claudio Morana, 2007. "A structural common factor approach to core inflation estimation and forecasting," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 163-169.
    2. Morana, Claudio, 2000. "Measuring core inflation in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0036, European Central Bank.
    3. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Juana Téllez Corredor & José Fernando Escobar, 2005. "La Inflación Subyacente en Colombia: Un Enfoque de Tendencias Estocásticas Comunes Asociadas a un VEC Estructural," Borradores de Economia 324, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2008. "La Tasa De Cambio Real De Equilibrio En Colombia Y Su Desalineamiento: Estimación A Través De Un Modelo Svec," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 26(57), pages 282-319, December.
    5. Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2004. "Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-399, April.
    6. Claudio Morana, 2003. "Long-Run Growth and Income Distribution: Evidence for Italy and the US," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 62(2), pages 171-210, October.

    More about this item


    core inflation; common trend; inflatino targeting;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gde:journl:gde_v58_n3-4_p301-328. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Erika Somma). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.