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Efecto de las Sequías Sobre la Inflación en Colombia

  • Rodrigo Avella
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    En este paper se analiza la relación entre las sequías y la inflación en Colombia como choques de oferta de corto plazo, por medio de la descomposición de la inflación total en inflación de alimentos y no alimentos, dentro de un modelo macroeconómico de pequeña escala con régimen de inflación objetivo. La inflación de alimentos no responde a choques de demanda en el corto plazo, pero en el largo plazo se ajusta a la inflación de los no alimentos, la cual si responde a los choques de demanda. Se prueba el efecto de las sequías bajo distintas reglas de política monetaria para ver en qué casos se puede disminuir la variabilidad de la inflación total ante choques de oferta. La variabilidad de la unflación total depende muy poco de la regla de política que se aplique. DE la misma manera, es mínimo el efecto de alternar la inflación objetivo entre total y sin alimentos; sin embargo, la variabilidad sobre la tasa de interés nominal, real y la brecha del producto aumenta cuando se fijan las metas sobre la inflación total. Los pronósticos de inflación pueden mejorar notablemente si se incluyen los choques de oferta generados por las sequías, dentro de los detrminantes de la variación de los precios.

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    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 183.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:183
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    1. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semiclassical Structural Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 15-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 1999. "Un Examen Empirico De La Curva De Phillips En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003676, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    3. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    4. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, . "Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia Disinflation," Borradores de Economia 168, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Allan D. Brunner, 2000. "El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices; Warm Water or Hot Air?," IMF Working Papers 00/203, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    8. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1993. "Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks," Working Papers 93-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    9. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, September.
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