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Efecto de las Sequías Sobre la Inflación en Colombia

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  • Rodrigo Avella

Abstract

En este paper se analiza la relación entre las sequías y la inflación en Colombia como choques de oferta de corto plazo, por medio de la descomposición de la inflación total en inflación de alimentos y no alimentos, dentro de un modelo macroeconómico de pequeña escala con régimen de inflación objetivo. La inflación de alimentos no responde a choques de demanda en el corto plazo, pero en el largo plazo se ajusta a la inflación de los no alimentos, la cual si responde a los choques de demanda. Se prueba el efecto de las sequías bajo distintas reglas de política monetaria para ver en qué casos se puede disminuir la variabilidad de la inflación total ante choques de oferta. La variabilidad de la unflación total depende muy poco de la regla de política que se aplique. DE la misma manera, es mínimo el efecto de alternar la inflación objetivo entre total y sin alimentos; sin embargo, la variabilidad sobre la tasa de interés nominal, real y la brecha del producto aumenta cuando se fijan las metas sobre la inflación total. Los pronósticos de inflación pueden mejorar notablemente si se incluyen los choques de oferta generados por las sequías, dentro de los detrminantes de la variación de los precios.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Avella, 2001. "Efecto de las Sequías Sobre la Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 183, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:183
    DOI: 10.32468/be.183
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.183
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duque, Valentina & Rosales-Rueda, Maria & Sanchez, Fabio, 2019. "How Do Early-Life Shocks Interact with Subsequent Human Capital Investments? Evidence from Administrative Data," Working Papers 2019-17, University of Sydney, School of Economics.

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