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Kapazitätsauslastung, Produktionshemmnisse und Preisanpassungen unter dem Mikroskop

Für die Analyse der Inflationsdynamik auf gesamtwirtschaftlicher Ebene ist das Zusammenspiel von Kapazitätsauslastung, Produktionshemmnissen und Preisanpassungen auf Unter nehmensebene von zentraler Bedeutung. Kapazitätsbeschränkungen behindern kurzfristig die Möglichkeiten der Unternehmen, ihre Produktion auszuweiten, was üblicherweise zu Preiserhöhungen führt. In dieser Analyse können wir für die Schweiz empirisch zeigen, dass Preiserhöhungen in der Tat wahrscheinlicher werden, wenn Unternehmen mit Kapazitätsbeschränkungen konfrontiert sind. So führt eine Behinderung der Produktion durch einen Mangel an Arbeitskräften oder unzureichende technische Kapazitäten zu höheren Preisen. Es zeigt sich jedoch auch, dass Unternehmen ihre Preise senken, wenn ihre Produktion auf eine ungenügende Nachfrage trifft. Übertragen auf die Makroebene sprechen diese Resultate für eine nichtlineare Phillipskurve. Die Inflationsrate steigt in Aufschwungsoder Boomphasen, in denen Kapazitätsbeschränkungen häufig auftreten, stärker als in Phasen mit normaler wirtschaftlicher Aktivität; umgekehrt sinkt die Inflationsrate in Konjunkturphasen mit ungenügender Nachfrage überproportional. Die volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten der Inflations bekämpfung lassen sich verringern, wenn die Notenbanken dieser konvex-konkaven Form der Phillips-Kurve Rechnung tragen.

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Article provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its journal KOF Analysen.

Volume (Year): 5 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 43-54

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Handle: RePEc:kof:anskof:v:5:y:2011:i:4:p:43-54
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  1. Michelle L. Barnes & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2003. "Inside and outside bounds: threshold estimates of the Phillips curve," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 3-18.
  2. Sarah Marit Lein & Eva Köberl, 2009. "Capacity Utilisation, Constraintes and Price Adjustments under the Microscope," Working Papers 2009-06, Swiss National Bank.
  3. Schaling, Eric, 2004. "The Nonlinear Phillips Curve and Inflation Forecast Targeting: Symmetric versus Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 361-386, June.
  4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling inflation after the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 173-220.
  5. Laxton, Douglas & Rose, David & Tambakis, Demosthenes, 1999. "The U.S. Phillips curve: The case for asymmetry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1459-1485, September.
  6. Alvarez-Lois, Pedro P., 2004. "Capacity constraints, idiosyncratic demand uncertainty and the dynamics of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 15-21, April.
  7. Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
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