IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mlt/wpaper/0116.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

STREAM: A structural macro-econometric model of the Maltese economy

Author

Listed:
  • Owen Grech

    (Central Bank of Malta)

  • Noel Rapa

    (Central Bank of Malta)

Abstract

This paper presents the third version of the Central Bank of Malta’s core macro-econometric model of the Maltese Economy, STREAM (Structural and TRaditional Econometric model for Malta). It is a traditional structural model built around the neo-classical synthesis. Behavioural equations are estimated in error-correction form on the basis of quarterly data spanning from 2000Q1 to 2013Q4. Economic agents are assumed to have adaptive expectations. The novelty of the model is that it contains fully fledged fiscal and financial blocks, which is uncommon in traditional structural models

Suggested Citation

  • Owen Grech & Noel Rapa, 2016. "STREAM: A structural macro-econometric model of the Maltese economy," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
  • Handle: RePEc:mlt:wpaper:0116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.centralbankmalta.org/file.aspx?f=31366
    File Function: First version, 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michelle L. Barnes & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2003. "Inside and outside bounds: threshold estimates of the Phillips curve," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 3-18.
    2. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2019. "A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short‐Term Unemployment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 111-137, February.
    3. Frédérick Demers, 2003. "The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting," Staff Working Papers 03-32, Bank of Canada.
    4. Bermingham, Colin & Coates, Dermot & Larkin, John & O'Brien, Derry & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2012. "Explaining Irish Inflation during the Financial Crisis," Economic Letters 13/EL/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
    6. Christina Jordan & Lauri Vilmi, 2014. "Analysing euro-area inflation using the Phillips curve," Quarterly Report on the Euro Area (QREA), Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission, vol. 13(2), pages 21-26, June.
    7. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn, 2014. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities Bend the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 51-93, October.
    8. Mark Gertler & John Leahy, 2008. "A Phillips Curve with an Ss Foundation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 533-572, June.
    9. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 337-405.
    10. Gatt, William, 2014. "An evaluation of core inflation measures for Malta," MPRA Paper 61250, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Andrew Blake & Haroon Mumtaz, 2015. "Applied Bayesian Econometrics for central bankers," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 36, April.
    12. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
    13. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
    15. Alberto Musso & Livio Stracca & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Instability and Nonlinearity in the Euro-Area Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 181-212, June.
    16. Cogley, Timothy, 2005. "How fast can the new economy grow? A Bayesian analysis of the evolution of trend growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 179-207, June.
    17. Laxton, Douglas & Rose, David & Tambakis, Demosthenes, 1999. "The U.S. Phillips curve: The case for asymmetry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1459-1485, September.
    18. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    19. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Grech, Aaron George & Grech, Owen & Micallef, Brian & Rapa, Noel & Gatt, William, 2013. "A Structural Macro-Econometric Model of the Maltese Economy," MPRA Paper 46128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Aaron G. Grech (ed.), 2015. "The evolution of the Maltese Economy since Independence," CBM Ebooks, Central Bank of Malta, edition 1, number 02.
    22. Hubrich, Kirstin & Karlsson, Tohmas, 2010. "Trade consistency in the context of the Eurosystem projection exercises – an overview," Occasional Paper Series 108, European Central Bank.
    23. repec:bde:journl:v:07-08:y:2013:p:09 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. ., 2008. "Population Aging, Financial Markets and Monetary Policy," Chapters, in: Dirk Broeders & Sylvester Eiffinger & Aerdt Houben (ed.), Frontiers in Pension Finance, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    25. John Lewis & Jumana Saleheen, 2018. "Tailwinds from the East: how has the rising share of imports from emerging markets affected import prices?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(5), pages 1343-1365.
    26. Kajuth, Florian, 2012. "Identifying the Phillips curve through shifts in volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 975-991.
    27. Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.
    28. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    29. Aaron G Grech, "undated". "The evolution of the Maltese economy since independence," CBM Working Papers WP/05/2015, Central Bank of Malta.
    30. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 1994. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models: Comments: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 413-417, October.
    31. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    32. Blanchard, Oliver & Cerutti, Eugenio & SUmmers, Lawrence, 2015. "Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications," Working Paper Series 15-070, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    33. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G. & Rossi, P.E.Peter E., 2004. "Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models with fat-tails and correlated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 185-212, September.
    34. Hubrich, Kirstin & Karlsson, Tohmas, 2010. "Trade consistency in the context of the Eurosystem projection exercises - an overview," Occasional Paper Series 108, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brian Micallef & Nathaniel Debono, 2020. "The rental sector and the housing block in STREAM," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2020, Central Bank of Malta.
    2. Noel Rapa, 2016. "MEDSEA : a small open economy DSGE model for Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/05/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    3. Aaron G Grech & Noel Rapa, "undated". "Trends in Malta’s current account and their underlying causes," CBM Policy Papers PP/03/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    4. Dmitri Blueschke & Klaus Weyerstrass & Reinhard Neck & Boris Majcen & Andrej Srakar & Miroslav Verbič, 2019. "Budget consolidation in a small open economy: a case study for Slovenia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 325-348, May.
    5. Noel Rapa, 2017. "Estimates of Fiscal Multipliers using MEDSEA," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2017, Central Bank of Malta.
    6. Noel Rapa, "undated". "The exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union – Its short-to-medium term impact on the Maltese economy," CBM Policy Papers PP/01/2017, Central Bank of Malta.
    7. Borg Ian & Micallef Brian, 2018. "Constructing a Financial Condition Index for a Small-Open Economy: The Case of Malta," Research in Applied Economics, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(3), pages 89-105, September.
    8. Brian Micallef & Silvio Attard, 2015. "Assessing the macroeconomic impact of extending hotel height limitations," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2015, Central Bank of Malta.
    9. Aaron G Grech, "undated". "The possible impact of pension age changes on Malta’s potential output," CBM Policy Papers PP/01/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    10. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Kilponen, Juha & Papadopoulou, Niki & Zimic, Srečko & Aldama, Pierre & Langenus, Geert & Alvarez, Luis Julian & Lemoine, Matthieu & Angelini, Elena, 2021. "Review of macroeconomic modelling in the Eurosystem: current practices and scope for improvement," Occasional Paper Series 267, European Central Bank.
    11. Germano Ruisi, "undated". "Global Oil Price Swings and Shipping Disruptions: Do They Matter for Malta?," CBM Policy Papers PP/07/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    12. William Gatt & Owen Grech, "undated". "An assessment of the Maltese housing market," CBM Policy Papers PP/02/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    13. Noel Rapa, 2020. "A Sectoral Model Extension to STREAM," CBM Working Papers WP/08/2020, Central Bank of Malta.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. William Gatt, 2016. "Time variation, asymmetry and threshold effect in Malta's Phillips curve," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    2. Baxa Jaromír & Plašil Miroslav & Vašíček Bořek, 2017. "Inflation and the steeplechase between economic activity variables: evidence for G7 countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-42, January.
    3. Szafranek, Karol, 2017. "Flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence for an emerging, small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 334-348.
    4. Andrejs Bessonovs & Olegs Tkacevs, 2016. "Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Activity and Its Variation Over Time in Latvia," Working Papers 2016/03, Latvijas Banka.
    5. Lasha Arevadze & Tamta Sopromadze & Giorgi Tsutskiridze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili, 2020. "Identifying the Phillips Curve in Georgia," NBG Working Papers 01/2020, National Bank of Georgia.
    6. Franz Xaver Zobl & Martin Ertl, 2021. "The Condemned Live Longer – New Evidence of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Central and Eastern Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 671-699, September.
    7. Malikane, Christopher, 2014. "Traditional Inflation Dynamics," MPRA Paper 61427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Is the US Phillips curve stable? Evidence from Bayesian vector autoregressions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 287-314, January.
    9. Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What's Up with the Phillips Curve?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(1 (Spring), pages 301-373.
    10. Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "The global component of inflation volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 700-721, June.
    11. Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2004. "A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 291, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Mumtaz, Haroon & Pintér, Gábor, 2017. "Forecasting with VAR models: Fat tails and stochastic volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1124-1143.
    13. Emmanuel De Veirman, 2022. "How Does the Phillips Curve Slope Vary with Repricing Rates?," Working Papers 735, DNB.
    14. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
    15. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2022. "Long‐term inflation expectations and inflation dynamics," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 158-174, January.
    16. Güneş Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Morley, 2020. "Have the driving forces of inflation changed in advanced and emerging market economies?," BIS Working Papers 896, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2020. "A note on the stability of the Swedish Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2573-2612, December.
    18. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2020. "Trade Exposure and the Evolution of Inflation Dynamics," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 6, pages 173-226, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Hülya Saygılı, 2020. "Sectoral inflationary dynamics: cross-country evidence on the open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(1), pages 75-101, February.
    20. Annalisa Cristini & Piero Ferri, 2021. "Nonlinear models of the Phillips curve," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1129-1155, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mlt:wpaper:0116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emmanuel Cachia (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.centralbankmalta.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.