Estimating Output Gap, Core Inflation, And The Nairu For Peru, 1979-2007
Following Doménech and Gómez (2006), and using quarterly Peruvian data for 1970:1-2007:4, I estimate a model that exploits the information contained in the inflation, unemployment and private investment rates in order to estimate non-observable variables as output gap, the NAIRU and the core infflation. The unknown parameters are estimated by maximun likelihood using a Kalman filter initialized with a partially diffuse prior, and the unobserved components are estimated using a smoothing algorithm. The results suggest that only the inflation rate contains useful information in order to estimate the output gap. Estimates suggest poor performance for the unemployment and private investment rates. I explain this issue as related to the poor quality of the construction of these variables. In order to perform a sensitivity analysis, I estimate the output gap using other alternative methods. The correlations are very different and very far away from the estimates obtained in this paper. It is clear that estimates obtained from simple statistic filters gives poor approximations.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 10 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm|
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.usc.es/economet/info.htm Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
- Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999.
"Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999.
"A theory-consistent system approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU,"
Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 271-275, September.
- Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1998. "A Theory-Consistent System Approach for Estimating Potential Output and the NAIRU," Working Paper Series 74, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego, 2003. "Assessment criteria for output gap estimates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 529-562, May.
- Canova, Fabio, 1993.
"Detrending and Business Cycle Facts,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Thomas Laubach, 1997.
"Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies,"
Research Working Paper
97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May.
- Domenech, Rafael & Gomez, Victor, 2006. "Estimating Potential Output, Core Inflation, and the NAIRU as Latent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 354-365, July.
- Andrew C. Harvey & Thomas M. Trimbur, 2003.
"General Model-Based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 244-255, May.
- Harvey, A.C. & Trimbur, T.M., 2001. "General Model-based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0113, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Piet de Jong & Singfat Chu-Chun-Lin, 2003. "Smoothing With An Unknown Initial Condition," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 141-148, 03.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:10:y:2010:i:1_10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. Carmen Guisan)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.