IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

NAOMI A New Quarterly Forecasting Model Part II: A Guide to Canadian NAOMI

Listed author(s):
  • Stephen Murchison

This paper provides an introduction to the Canadian side of NAOMI (North American Open economy Macro-econometric Integrated model), a new economic model developed at the Department of Finance. NAOMI is intended to bridge the gap between pure forecasting models whose forecasts are often difficult to interpret and dynamic general equilibrium models whose predictions often lack precision. NAOMI’s intended purpose is to provide quarterly macroeconomic forecasts of the Canadian and U.S. economies along with a measure of the uncertainty associated with each forecast. While ideally suited to this task, NAOMI is also capable of providing sensible answers to a limited set of more general policy questions. Specifically, it may be employed to address both the likelihood and economic implications of a particular risk to the forecast. This paper provides a detailed description of the economic assumptions underlying NAOMI’s structure. In addition, a complete set of deterministic shocks is included to illustrate the model’s simulation properties. Finally, model validation is provided through an extensive set of out-of-sample forecast statistics. Cet article offre une introduction au bloc canadien de MIOAN (modèle Macro-économique Intégré de l'économie Ouverte de l'Amérique du Nord), un nouveau modèle économique élaboré au ministère des Finances. Le modèle MIOAN vise à faire le pont entre les modèles prévisionnels purs, dont les prévisions sont souvent difficiles à interpréter, et les modèles d'équilibre général dynamiques, dont les prévisions manquent souvent de précision. Le modèle MIOAN vise à fournir des prévisions macro-économiques trimestrielles relatives aux économies canadienne et américaine, ainsi qu'une mesure de l'incertitude associée à chaque prévision. Bien qu'il ait été expressément conçu à cette fin, le modèle MIOAN permet également d'obtenir des réponses structurées à une série plus limitée de questions générales de politique. Spécifiquement, il permet d'évaluer à la fois la probabilité et les implications économiques d'un risque spécifique associé à la prévision. L'article offre une description détaillée des hypothèses économiques qui sous-tendent la structure du modèle MIOAN. De plus, un ensemble complet de chocs déterministiques est inclus afin d'illustrer les propriétés de simulation du modèle. Enfin, la validation du modèle est illustrée par un ensemble exhaustif de statistiques prévisionnelles hors-échantillon.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Department of Finance Canada in its series Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada with number 2001-25.

in new window

Date of creation:
Handle: RePEc:fca:wpfnca:2001-25
Contact details of provider: Postal:
140 O'Connor St., Ottawa, K1A 0G5

Phone: 613-992-1573
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fca:wpfnca:2001-25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gustavo Durango)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.