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Capital Flows, Interest Payments and the Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth Model: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

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  • Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid

Abstract

The analytical framework known as the balance-of-payments constrained growth model introduced by Anthony P. Thirlwall more than two decades ago, and further developed by him and N. Hussain, was a major contribution to understanding the relevance of a foreign exchange constraint on the long-run growth performance of open economies. In its simplest expression this model is known as Thirlwall's law. Recent contributions have revised this analytical model in order to ensure that the pattern of foreign debt accumulation, implicit in the economy's balance-of-payments constrained growth path, is sustainable. Up to now most theoretical presentations of Thirlwall's law do not incorporate interest payments explicitly and, moreover, the empirical studies carried out within this tradition do not take them into account. This omission may be a major shortcoming in the analysis of the long-term growth path of economies-like many developing ones-whose net interest payments abroad are a large debit item in the current account of their balance of payments. In the present paper we introduce an extension of the balance-of-payments constrained growth model that explicitly captures the influence on foreign interest payments of the economy's long-run rate of growth-while at the same time guaranteeing that foreign indebtedness is not on an explosive track-and test its empirical adequacy by applying it to examine the Mexican case. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2003.

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  • Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 2003. "Capital Flows, Interest Payments and the Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth Model: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2-3), pages 346-365, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:54:y:2003:i:2-3:p:346-365
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    Cited by:

    1. Cimoli, Mario & Porcile, Gabriel, 2011. "Tecnologia, heterogeneidad y crecimiento: una caja de herramientas estructuralista
      [Technology, heterogeneity and Growth: A Structuralist Toolbox]
      ," MPRA Paper 33801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mario Cimoli & Jose Antonio Ocampo & Gabriel Porcile, 2017. "Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies," LEM Papers Series 2017/26, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Gökçe, Atilla & Çankal, Erhan, 2013. "Balance-of-payments constrained growth model for the Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 140-144.
    4. Eva da Silva Catela & Gabriel Porcile, 2012. "Keynesian and Schumpeterian efficiency in a BOP-constrained growth model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 777-802.
    5. Guarini, Giulio & Porcile, Gabriel, 2016. "Sustainability in a post-Keynesian growth model for an open economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 14-22.
    6. Douglas Alcantara Alencar & Douglas Alcantara Alencar & Eduardo Strachman, 2016. "Foreign Direct Investment And Balance Of Payments In Latin America (1990-2011)," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42ndd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 081, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Garcimartin, Carlos & Kvedaras, Virmantas & Rivas, Luis, 2016. "Business cycles in a balance-of-payments constrained growth framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 120-132.
    8. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of payments constrained growth models: history and overview," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 307-351.
    9. André Nassif & Carmem Feijó & Eliane Araújo, 2015. "Structural change and economic development: is Brazil catching up or falling behind?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(5), pages 1307-1332.
    10. repec:gei:jnlfer:v:2:y:2017:i:1:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Gustavo Britto & João Prates Romero, 2011. "Modelos kaldorianos de crescimento e suas extensões contemporâneas," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 449, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, revised Jul 2013.
    12. Mario Cimoli & Gabriel Porcile, 2014. "Technology, structural change and BOP-constrained growth: a structuralist toolbox," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 215-237.
    13. Fernanda Ferreira Fernandes Fávaro & Guilherme Jonas Costa Da Silva & Lívia Abrão Steagall Pirtouscheg, 2016. "Bureaucracy, External Trade And Long-Term Growth In A Balance-Of-Payments Constrained Growth Model," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 113, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Soukiazis, Elias & Cerqueira, Pedro A. & Antunes, Micaela, 2012. "Modelling economic growth with internal and external imbalances: Empirical evidence from Portugal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 478-486.
    15. Nishi, Hiroshi, 2016. "A multi-sectoral balance-of-payments-constrained growth model with sectoral heterogeneity," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 31-45.
    16. Jayme Jr., Frederico G. & Prates Romero, João & Silveira, Fabrício, 2011. "Brazil: structural change and balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    17. Jeanete Dias & Micaela Antunes, 2015. "Applying Thirlwall’s Law to the Portuguese economy: a sectoral analysis," GEMF Working Papers 2015-20, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    18. Nelson Marconi & Igor Lopes Rocha & Guilherme R. Magacho, 2016. "Sectoral Capabilities And Productive Structure: An Input-Output Analysis Of The Key Sectors Of The Brazilian Economy," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42ndd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 086, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    19. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    20. Cimoli, Mario & Fleitas, Sebastian & Porcile, Gabriel, 2011. "Real Exchange Rate and the Structure of Exports," MPRA Paper 37846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Marcos Tostes Lamonica & Carmem Aparecida Feijo, 2007. "Crescimento E Industrialização No Brasil: As Lições Das Leis De Kaldor," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 053, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    22. Leon Podkaminer, 2017. "“Thirlwall’s Law” reconsidered," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 29-57, February.
    23. Jo„o Prates Romero & FabrÌcio Silveira & Gustavo Britto, 2011. "Structural change, National Innovation System and balance-of-payments constraint: a theoretical and empirical analysis of the Brazilian case," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 440, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.

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