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An appraisal of Thirlwall-Hussain model: Capital flows and economic dynamics in Mexico, 1994-2023

Author

Listed:
  • Ignacio Perrotini Hernández

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México)

  • Víctor M. Cuevas Ahumada

    (Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México)

Abstract

Este trabajo evalúa empíricamente el papel de los flujos de capital en el crecimiento económico de México durante el período 1994-2023. La hipótesis central es que los flujos de capital contribuyen a mantener un crecimiento de largo plazo mayor al que se justificaría con equilibrio en la cuenta corriente. La principal contribución es proveer evidencia consistente con la hipótesis Thirlwall-Hussain (1982). Es decir, se requieren entradas de capital para financiar los déficits en la cuenta corriente de las economías que crecen más allá de sus medios. Este estudio es pionero en contrastar este modelo para el caso de México. Nuestras estimaciones, con base en un modelo de corrección de errores, muestran que los flujos de capital, las exportaciones y las importaciones están estrechamente ligadas. Las exportaciones y la inversión extranjera directa proveen las divisas necesarias para enfrentar la dependencia de tecnología y bienes de capital. La conclusión es que el financiamiento es una variable clave de la dependencia a lo largo de las cadenas globales de valor. La principal limitación es que se requiere investigación adicional para generalizar nuestros resultados.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Perrotini Hernández & Víctor M. Cuevas Ahumada, 2024. "An appraisal of Thirlwall-Hussain model: Capital flows and economic dynamics in Mexico, 1994-2023," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 19(3), pages 1-18, Julio - S.
  • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:19:y:2024:i:3:a:3
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balance of payments; capital flows; growth; Mexico; VEC models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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