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Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in Brazil: a test of Thirlwall's Law, 1890-1973




The paper offers a time-series test of Thirlwall's Law for Brazil during the 1890-1973 period. The results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between Brazilian gross domestic product (GDP), terms-of-trade, and world income, as Thirlwall's Law predicts. In addition, an error correction model is estimated, which shows that adjusting toward Thirlwall's Law equilibrium explains a substantial part of total variation of real GDP in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Bértola & Hermes Higachi & Gabriel Porcile, 2002. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in Brazil: a test of Thirlwall's Law, 1890-1973," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 123-140.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:25:y:2002:i:1:p:123-140
    DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2002.11051348

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. John T. Harvey, 1996. "Orthodox Approaches to Exchange Rate Determination: A Survey," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 567-583, July.
    2. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
    3. Stephan Schulmeister, 1988. "Currency speculation and dollar fluctuations," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 41(167), pages 343-365.
    4. repec:mes:jeciss:v:31:y:1997:i:2:p:615-622 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
    6. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eva da Silva Catela & Gabriel Porcile, 2012. "Keynesian and Schumpeterian efficiency in a BOP-constrained growth model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 777-802.
    2. Christine Carton Madura, 2009. "Mecanismos kaldorianos del crecimiento regional: Aplicación empírica al caso del ALADI (1980-2007)," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 8, pages 1-24, May.
    3. José Luís Oreiro, 2006. "Capital mobility, real exchange rate appreciation, and asset price bubbles in emerging economies: a Post Keynesian macroeconomic model for a small open economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 28(2), pages 317-344, January.
    4. repec:gei:jnlfer:v:2:y:2017:i:1:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Alexis Habiyaremye & Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2012. "Export demand elasticities and productivity as determinants of growth: estimates for Mauritius," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(9), pages 1143-1158, March.
    6. Habiyaremye, Alexis & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2008. "Export Demand Elasticities as Determinants of Growth: Estimates for Mauritius," MERIT Working Papers 072, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    7. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    8. Garcimartin, Carlos & Kvedaras, Virmantas & Rivas, Luis, 2016. "Business cycles in a balance-of-payments constrained growth framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 120-132.
    9. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of payments constrained growth models: history and overview," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 307-351.
    10. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth model: the case of India," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 655-687.
    11. Raphael Rocha Gouvea & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2010. "Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall's law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 169-204, October.
    12. Elena Spasova, 2016. "Balance-of-payments constraints on Bulgarian economic growth," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 90-108.
    13. Jayme Jr., Frederico G. & Prates Romero, João & Silveira, Fabrício, 2011. "Brazil: structural change and balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.

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