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A Restrição Externa Como Fator Limitante Do Crescimento Econômico Brasileiro: Um Teste Empírico


  • Antonio Tiago Loureiro Araújo dos Santos
  • Gilberto Tadeu Lima
  • Veridiana Ramos da Silva Carvalho


This paper draws upon original works by A. Thirlwall and some recent developments of them, particularly those made by J. C. Moreno-Brid, on the balance-of- payments constraints to growth in several countries. It is intended, by means of new empirical tests, to evaluate the specification of such a constraint that better suit to the brazilian case and to test whether it has been really binding. New robust evidence is found that economic growth in Brazil was actually balance-of payments-constrained in the 1948- 2004 period. However, unlike what intuition could lead one to expect a priori, the model specification that incorporates capital flows and external debt dynamics does not differ much from the original specification of Thirlwall´s Law regarding a softening of the external constraint.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Tiago Loureiro Araújo dos Santos & Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Veridiana Ramos da Silva Carvalho, 2005. "A Restrição Externa Como Fator Limitante Do Crescimento Econômico Brasileiro: Um Teste Empírico," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 066, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:066

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    Cited by:

    1. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of payments constrained growth models: history and overview," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 307-351.
    2. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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