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A Restrição Externa como Fator Limitante do Crescimento Econômico Brasileiro: Um Teste Empírico


  • Veridiana Ramos Carvalho

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Gilberto Tadeu Lima

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Antonio Tiago Loureiro Araujo dos Santos

    (Universidade de São Paulo e Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional)


Este artigo emprega a abordagem do crescimento econômico sob restrição externa, tal como desenvolvida a partir de Thirlwall (1979), para estimar empiricamente em que medida, se alguma, o crescimento brasileiro de longo prazo tem sido condicionado por essa restrição. Após avaliar a especificação dessa restrição que melhor se ajusta ao caso brasileiro, é constatado, a partir de evidências empíricas robustas, que o crescimento brasileiro entre 1948 e 2004 foi restringido pelo equilíbrio nas contas externas. Entretanto, o poder explicativo da especificação que incorpora o fluxo de capitais e o endividamento externo não difere muito do correspondente à Lei de Thirlwall original.

Suggested Citation

  • Veridiana Ramos Carvalho & Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Antonio Tiago Loureiro Araujo dos Santos, 2008. "A Restrição Externa como Fator Limitante do Crescimento Econômico Brasileiro: Um Teste Empírico," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 9(2), pages 285-307.
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:9:y:2008:i:2:285-307

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    2. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of payments constrained growth models: history and overview," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 307-351.

    More about this item


    Crescimento Brasileiro; Restrição Externa; Lei de Thirlwall; Cointegração;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General


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