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The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth for a Selection of Asian Countries


  • Mark Dray
  • A.P. Thirlwall



The paper questions the assumption in all of mainstream growth theory that the Harrod natural rate of growth is exogenously determined and independent of the pressure of demand in an economy. First a simple statistical technique is presented for estimating the natural rate of growth, and then it is shown how it is possible to test for its endogeneity. The model is applied to ten Asian countries, and the results support the conclusions from previous studies of OECD and Latin American countries that the natural rate of growth is elastic to the actual rate of growth working through induced labour supply and productivity growth. Demand matters for economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Dray & A.P. Thirlwall, 2010. "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth for a Selection of Asian Countries," Studies in Economics 1006, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  • Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1006

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Miguel A. LeÛn-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 441-459, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin S. Nell & A.P. Thirlwall, 2017. "Why does the productivity of investment vary across countries?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(282), pages 213-245.
    2. Matteo Lanzafame, 2014. "The balance of payments-constrained growth rate and the natural rate of growth: new empirical evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 817-838.
    3. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    4. Lavoie, Marc. & Stockhammer, Engelbert., 2012. "Wage-led growth : concepts, theories and policies," ILO Working Papers 994709363402676, International Labour Organization.
    5. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of payments constrained growth models: history and overview," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 307-351.
    6. repec:psl:moneta:2017:31 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Molerés-Regalado, Estefanía. & Perrotini-Hernández, Ignacio., 2013. "On Harrod’s Natural Rate of Growth and the Role of Demand: an Empirical Assessment," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(16), pages 29-49, primer se.
    8. Senay, Acikgöz & Mert, Merter, 2015. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth: An alternative approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item


    Demand-led growth; endogenous labour supply and productivity growth; Asia;

    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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