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How large are hysteresis effects? Estimates from a Keynesian growth model

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  • Fazzari, Steven M.
  • González, Alejandro

Abstract

This paper estimates a demand-led model of macroeconomic growth and fluctuations in which the growth rate of the economy's supply side converges to the growth rate of demand. Convergence happens because labor supply and productivity growth respond to the degree of slack in the economy. Faster demand growth reduces unemployment and stimulates supply. We estimate the model using simulated method of moments and find that after a unit demand shock, labor productivity and labor supply increase by 0.8 and 0.2, respectively, in the long-run. For an economy with labor market slack, our estimates imply that supply growth could accommodate a one percentage point increase in the growth rate of demand with a 0.74 percentage point reduction in the long-run unemployment rate. These hysteresis results are robust to whether or not the Great Recession is included in our sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Fazzari, Steven M. & González, Alejandro, 2025. "How large are hysteresis effects? Estimates from a Keynesian growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:173:y:2025:i:c:s0165188925000247
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105058
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    3. Marwil J. Dávila‐Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2024. "Thirlwall's law: Binding constraint or ‘centre‐of‐gravity’?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 52-82, February.
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    5. Mark Setterfield, 2023. "Will hysteresis effects afflict the US economy during the post-COVID recovery?," Working Papers 2306, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    6. Gonzalez, Alejandro, 2024. "Bargaining power, demand growth and the decline of the labor share," OSF Preprints 78kad, Center for Open Science.
    7. Steven Fazzari, 2024. "Supermultiplier Models, Demand Stagnation, and Monetary Policy: Inevitable March to the Lower Bound for Interest Rates?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 1801-1826, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hysteresis; Demand-led growth; Supermultiplier;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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