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The Sraffian Supermultiplier and Cycles: Theory and Empirics

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  • Michalis Nikiforos
  • Marcio Santetti
  • Rudiger von Arnim

Abstract

This paper provides a theoretical and empirical reassessment of supermultiplier theory. First, we show that, as a result of the passive role it assigns to investment, the Sraffian supermultiplier (SSM) predicts that the rate of utilization leads the investment share in a dampened cycle or, equivalently, that a convergent cyclical motion in the utilization-investment share plane would be counterclockwise. Second, impulse response functions from standard recursive vector autoregressions (VAR) for postwar US samples strongly indicate that the investment share leads the rate of utilization, or that these cycles are clockwise. These results raise questions about the key mechanism underlying supermultiplier theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Michalis Nikiforos & Marcio Santetti & Rudiger von Arnim, 2021. "The Sraffian Supermultiplier and Cycles: Theory and Empirics," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_993, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_993
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Skott, 2019. "Autonomous demand, Harrodian instability and the supply side," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 233-246, May.
    2. Michalis Nikiforos, 2018. "Some comments on the Sraffian Supermultiplier approach to growth and distribution," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 659-675, October.
    3. Olivier Allain, 2015. "Tackling the instability of growth: a Kaleckian-Harrodian model with an autonomous expenditure component," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(5), pages 1351-1371.
    4. Nicholas Kaldor, 1955. "Alternative Theories of Distribution," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 23(2), pages 83-100.
    5. Marc Lavoie, 2016. "Convergence Towards the Normal Rate of Capacity Utilization in Neo-Kaleckian Models: The Role of Non-Capacity Creating Autonomous Expenditures," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 172-201, February.
    6. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
    7. Guilherme Haluska & Julia Braga & Ricardo Summa, 2021. "Growth, investment share and the stability of the Sraffian Supermultiplier model in the U.S. economy (1985–2017)," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 345-364, May.
    8. Michalis Nikiforos, 2018. "Some Comments on the Sraffian Supermultiplier Approach to Growth and Distribution," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_907, Levy Economics Institute.
    9. Joan Robinson, 1962. "Essays in the Theory of Economic Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-00626-7.
    10. Fabio Freitas & Franklin Serrano, 2015. "Growth Rate and Level Effects, the Stability of the Adjustment of Capacity to Demand and the Sraffian Supermultiplier," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 258-281, July.
    11. Daniele Girardi & Riccardo Pariboni, 2016. "Long-run Effective Demand in the US Economy: An Empirical Test of the Sraffian Supermultiplier Model," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 523-544, October.
    12. José A. Pérez-Montiel & Carles Manera Erbina, 2020. "Autonomous expenditures and induced investment: a panel test of the Sraffian supermultiplier model in European countries," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 220-239, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcio Santetti, Michalis Nikiforos, Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "Growth, cycles, and residential investment," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2022_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sraffian Supermultiplier; Cyclical Growth; (Induced) Investment; Desired Rate of Capacity Utilization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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