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Growth, cycles, and residential investment

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  • Marcio Santetti, Michalis Nikiforos, Rudiger von Arnim

Abstract

The empirical literature on neo-Goodwinian models of growth and distribution still lacks an explicit treatment of capital accumulation. Further, and across different theoretical approaches, residential investment is seen as a critical driver of the business cycle. This paper addresses these two issues. First, through four- and five-dimensional Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models, cyclical trajectories derived from impulse-response functions confirm profit-led demand and profit-squeeze distribution regimes, in accordance with the cyclical stylized facts in the vein of Goodwin (1967). Second, aggregate investment is then split into its residential and nonresidential categories. Results confirm that residential investment leads the cycle, whereas nonresidential investment lags it. Finally, this study argues that residential investment is, in reality, undertaken by corporations—and not households—, and can therefore not be seen as autonomous to the business cycle, demographics, and financial variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcio Santetti, Michalis Nikiforos, Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "Growth, cycles, and residential investment," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2022_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2022_04
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cyclical growth; Residential investment; Labor share of income. JEL Classification: E12; E22; E24; E25; E32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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