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The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates

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  • Jose Barrales-Ruiz, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, Codrina Rada, Daniele Tavani, Rudiger von Arnim

Abstract

This paper surveys current debates on the distributive cycle. The literature builds on R.M. Goodwin’s seminal 1967 chapter titled “A growth cycle.†We review theoretical motivations for the distributive cycle, which, despite signif-icant differences, all imply that macroeconomic activity leads the labor share in a counter-clockwise cycle in the activity-labor share plane. Subsequently, we summarize and update evidence on the existence of a distributive cycle, with a focus on the post-war US macroeconomy. We analyze activity and labor share series and their interaction in the frequency domain, and also employ stan-dard vector autoregressions. Results confirm the distributive cycle for the US post-war period. We contextualize results vis-`a-vis current debates: (1) we consider a financial cycle, to rebut the theoretical possibility of “pseudo-Goodwin†cycles, (2) demonstrate that a suppressed labor share and stagnation are com-patible with short run Goodwin cycles, and argue that this link presents the way forward for research on secular stagnation.

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  • Jose Barrales-Ruiz, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, Codrina Rada, Daniele Tavani, Rudiger von Arnim, 2021. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2021-01, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2021-01
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    Cited by:

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    4. Jose Barrales-Ruiz & Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Rudiger von Arnim, 2025. "Growth is wage-led in the long run," Working Papers 2505, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    5. Robert Calvert Jump & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2023. "Building blocks of a heterodox business cycle theory," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 334-358, April.
    6. Gilberto Tadeu Lima & André M. Marques, 2024. "Demand and distribution in a dynamic spatial panel model for the United States: Evidence from state‐level data," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 475-519, November.
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    8. Michael Cauvel & Miguel Alejandro Sanchez, 2023. "Life Expectancy and the Labor Share in the U.S," Working Papers PKWP2308, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    9. Jose Barrales-Ruiz & Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Rudiger von Arnim, 2025. "Growth is wage-led in the long run," Working Papers 2505, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    10. Marques, André M. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2022. "Testing for Granger causality in quantiles between the wage share in income and productive capacity utilization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 290-312.
    11. Jose Barrales-Ruiz & Codrina Rada & Rudiger von Arnim, 2024. "Evidence on Goodwin cycles across US golden age and neoliberal era," Working Papers 2410, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
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    13. Codrina Rada & Ansel Schiavone & Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "Goodwin, Baumol & Lewis: How structural change can lead to inequality and stagnation," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 1070-1093, November.
    14. Marco Stamegna, 2024. "Induced innovation, the distributive cycle, and the changing pattern of labour productivity cyclicality: an SVAR analysis for the US economy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(3), pages 881-929, October.
    15. Codrina Rada & Ansel Shiavone & Rudiger von Arnim, 2024. "An exploration of neo-Goodwinian theory of cyclical growth," Working Papers 2403, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    16. Marco Stamegna, 2024. "Wage inequality and induced innovation in a classical-Marxian growth model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 127-168, January.
    17. Stamegna, Marco, 2022. "Induced innovation, the distributive cycle, and the changing pattern of labour productivity cyclicality: a SVAR analysis for the US economy," MPRA Paper 113855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Rudiger von Arnim & Luis Felipe Eick, 2025. "Pseudo, or not? Neo-Goodwinian growth cycles with financial linkages," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2025-02, University of Utah, Department of Economics.

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    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution

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