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Accounting For The Cyclical Dynamics Of Income Shares

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  • ENCHUAN SHAO
  • PEDRO SILOS

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="en"> Over the business cycle, labor's share of output is negatively but weakly correlated with output, and it lags output by about four quarters. Profits' share is strongly pro-cyclical. It neither leads nor lags output, and its volatility is about five times that of output. Those assumptions relate to the structure of aggregate technology and the degree of competition in factor markets. Despite much evidence in favor of time-varying income shares, macroeconomics still lacks models that can account for their time series facts. This article constructs a model that can replicate those facts. We introduce costly entry of firms in a model with frictional labor markets and find a link between the ability of the model to replicate income shares' dynamics and the ability of the model to amplify and propagate shocks. That link is a weak correlation between the real interest rate and output, a fact in U.S. data but a feature that models of aggregate fluctuations have had difficulty achieving. (JEL E3, E25, J3, E24)

Suggested Citation

  • Enchuan Shao & Pedro Silos, 2014. "Accounting For The Cyclical Dynamics Of Income Shares," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 778-795, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:52:y:2014:i:2:p:778-795
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecin.12065
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shao, Enchuan & Silos, Pedro, 2013. "Entry costs and labor market dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 243-255.
    2. Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2011. "Matching labor's share in a search and matching model," Kiel Working Papers 1733, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. Andrea Colciago & Lorenza Rossi, 2013. "Firm Entry, Endogenous Markups and the Dynamics of the Labor Share of Income," DNB Working Papers 367, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Benjamin Bridgman, 2014. "Is Labor's Loss Capital's Gain? Gross versus Net Labor Shares," BEA Working Papers 0114, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    5. Cantore, Cristiano & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph & Yang, Bo, 2015. "CES technology and business cycle fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 133-151.
    6. Claire A. Reicher, 2016. "Matching labor’s share in a search and matching model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1229-1254, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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