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What is the Impact of an Exogenous Shock to the Wage Share? VAR Results for the US Economy, 1973–2018

Author

Listed:
  • Deepankar Basu

    () (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst)

  • Leila Gautham

    () (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst)

Abstract

This paper uses a novel empirical strategy to present empirical estimates of the effect of an exogenous shock to distribution on demand and accumulation for the US economy from 1973 to 2018. We use recursive vector autoregressions to identify the impact of shocks to the wage share. We impose restrictions motivated by a simple neo-Kaleckian open-economy model, and build on the recursive identification scheme in Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (1999) to show that this small set of plausible and transparent assumptions are sufficient to identify the impact of shocks to distribution. We find that positive shocks to the wage share have long-lasting negative impacts on demand and growth. Our results are robust to the inclusion of additional variables and to differences in specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Deepankar Basu & Leila Gautham, 2019. "What is the Impact of an Exogenous Shock to the Wage Share? VAR Results for the US Economy, 1973–2018," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2019-08, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2019-08
    as

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    File URL: http://www.umass.edu/economics/publications/2019-08.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
    3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    4. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
    5. repec:elg:rokejn:v:5:y:2017:i:3:p336-359 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    7. Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Distributive And Demand Cycles In The Us Economy-A Structuralist Goodwin Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 389-411, July.
    8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    9. Bhaduri, Amit & Marglin, Stephen, 1990. "Unemployment and the Real Wage: The Economic Basis for Contesting Political Ideologies," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 375-393, December.
    10. Özlem Onaran & Engelbert Stockhammer & Lucas Grafl, 2011. "Financialisation, income distribution and aggregate demand in the USA," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 637-661.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand-distribution dynamics; neo-Kaleckian models; functional income distribution; VAR estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • D3 - Microeconomics - - Distribution
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution

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