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A non-linear Keynesian Goodwin-type endogenous model of the cycle: Bayesian evidence for the USA

Author

Listed:
  • Mariolis Theodore

    (Panteion University, Athens, Greece)

  • Konstantakis Konstantinos N.

    (National Technical University of Athens, Zografou Campus, Athens, Greece)

  • Michaelides Panayotis G.

    (Laboratory of Theoretical and Applied Economics, School of Applied Mathematics and Physics, National Technical University of Athens, Heroon Polytechneiou 9, 157.80, Zografou Campus, Athens, Greece, Phone: +302107721624, Fax: +302107721618)

  • Tsionas Efthymios G.

    (Athens University of Economics and Business, Athens, Greece)

Abstract

This paper incorporates the so-called Bhaduri-Marglin accumulation function in Goodwin’s original growth cycle model and econometrically estimates the proposed model for the case of the US economy in the time period 1960–2012, using a modern Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo method. Based on our findings, the US economy follows an exhilarationist regime throughout our investigation period with the sole exception of an underconsumption regime for the time period 1974–1978. In general, the results suggest that the proposed approach is an appropriate vehicle for expanding and improving traditional Goodwin-type models.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariolis Theodore & Konstantakis Konstantinos N. & Michaelides Panayotis G. & Tsionas Efthymios G., 2019. "A non-linear Keynesian Goodwin-type endogenous model of the cycle: Bayesian evidence for the USA," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:23:y:2019:i:1:p:16:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/snde-2016-0137
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    JEL classification:

    • B51 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Socialist; Marxian; Sraffian
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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