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Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy

Author

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  • Robert A Blecker
  • Michael Cauvel
  • YK Kim

Abstract

This paper investigates noncyclical, short-run relationships between income distribution and the components of aggregate demand in the US from 1963-2016. Previous studies using this `structural' methodology have typically found that demand is wage-led in most large, advanced economies. However, these studies have been criticized for treating total output and the wage share as exogenous, potentially leading to simultaneity bias. This paper corrects for such possible bias as well as common shocks to the equations by using systems GMM. Sur- prisingly, these estimates imply that private-sector aggregate demand is more, rather than less, wage-led (or in some cases, less profit-led) compared with OLS estimates of identically specified models. This paper is also the first to provide separate estimates of nonresidential and residential investment functions and to distinguish the e ects of shocks to di erent underlying determinants of the wage share (unit labour costs and firms' monopoly power), finding that these di er qualitatively.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert A Blecker & Michael Cauvel & YK Kim, 2021. "Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy," Working Papers 2021-03, University of Massachusetts Boston, Economics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:mab:wpaper:2021-03
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Woodgate, Ryan, 2021. "Profit-led in effect or in mere appearance? Estimating the Irish demand regime given the influence of multinational enterprises," IPE Working Papers 154/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    3. repec:uta:papers:2025-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Marques, André M. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2022. "Testing for Granger causality in quantiles between the wage share in income and productive capacity utilization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 290-312.
    5. Jose Barrales-Ruiz, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, Codrina Rada, Daniele Tavani, Rudiger von Arnim, 2020. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2020_07, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    6. Gonzalez, Alejandro, 2024. "Bargaining power, demand growth and the decline of the labor share," OSF Preprints 78kad, Center for Open Science.
    7. Hein, Eckhard, 2025. "Kaleckian economics after Kalecki: A survey," IPE Working Papers 257/2025, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    8. repec:osf:osfxxx:78kad_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Cícero, Vinicius Curti & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2023. "Functional distribution of income as a determinant of importing behavior: An empirical analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 393-405.
    10. Ozan Ekin Kurt, 2022. "Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-2), pages 507-541, December.
    11. Cauvel, Michael & Pacitti, Aaron, 2022. "Bargaining power, structural change, and the falling U.S. labor share," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 512-530.
    12. Sordi, Serena & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J., 2023. "The green-MKS system: A baseline environmental macro-dynamic model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1056-1085.
    13. Vinicius Curti Cícero & Daniele Tavani, 2024. "Institutional changes, effective demand and inequality: a structuralist model of secular stagnation," Working Papers PKWP2410, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    14. Robert A. Blecker, 2025. "Conflict and cooperation in international trade: post-Keynesian perspectives," FMM Working Paper 119-2025, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. Jose Barrales‐Ruiz & Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Daniele Tavani & Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 468-503, April.
    16. Ryan Woodgate, 2022. "Profit-led in effect or in appearance alone? Estimating the Irish demand regime given the influence of multinational enterprises," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 319-350, July.
    17. Ettore Gallo, 2023. "How Short Is the Short Run in the Neo-Kaleckian Growth Model?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 687-701, July.
    18. André M. Marques, 2022. "Reviewing demand regimes in open economies with Penn World Table data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(6), pages 730-751, December.
    19. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2025. "Changing quantile distributive growth cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 441-456.
    20. Jose Barrales-Ruiz & Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Rudiger von Arnim, 2025. "Growth is wage-led in the long run," Working Papers 2505, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    21. Paul Carrillo‐Maldonado, 2023. "Partial identification for growth regimes: The case of Latin American countries," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 557-583, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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