IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mab/wpaper/2021-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy

Author

Listed:
  • Robert A Blecker
  • Michael Cauvel
  • YK Kim

Abstract

This paper investigates noncyclical, short-run relationships between income distribution and the components of aggregate demand in the US from 1963-2016. Previous studies using this `structural' methodology have typically found that demand is wage-led in most large, advanced economies. However, these studies have been criticized for treating total output and the wage share as exogenous, potentially leading to simultaneity bias. This paper corrects for such possible bias as well as common shocks to the equations by using systems GMM. Sur- prisingly, these estimates imply that private-sector aggregate demand is more, rather than less, wage-led (or in some cases, less profit-led) compared with OLS estimates of identically specified models. This paper is also the first to provide separate estimates of nonresidential and residential investment functions and to distinguish the e ects of shocks to di erent underlying determinants of the wage share (unit labour costs and firms' monopoly power), finding that these di er qualitatively.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert A Blecker & Michael Cauvel & YK Kim, 2021. "Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy," Working Papers 2021-03, University of Massachusetts Boston, Economics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:mab:wpaper:2021-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.umb.edu/RePEc/files/2021_03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: the long and the short of it," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 373-390, October.
    2. Obst, Thomas & Onaran, Özlem & Nikolaidi, Maria, 2017. "The effect of income distribution and fiscal policy on growth, investment, and budget balance: the case of Europe," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 16088, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    3. Riccardo Pariboni & Pasquale Tridico, 2019. "Labour share decline, financialisation and structural change," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(4), pages 1073-1102.
    4. Karsten Kohler & Alexander Guschanski & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2019. "The impact of financialisation on the wage share: a theoretical clarification and empirical test," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(4), pages 937-974.
    5. Brent Neiman, 2014. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
    6. Marc Lavoie, 2014. "Post-Keynesian Economics: New Foundations," Post-Print hal-01343652, HAL.
    7. Charpe, Matthieu & Bridji, Slim & Mcadam, Peter, 2020. "Labor Share And Growth In The Long Run," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(7), pages 1720-1757, October.
    8. Engelbert Stockhammer & Rafael Wildauer, 2016. "Debt-driven growth? Wealth, distribution and demand in OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1609-1634.
    9. David Autor & David Dorn & Lawrence F Katz & Christina Patterson & John Van Reenen, 2020. "The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms [“Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 645-709.
    10. Mark Setterfield (ed.), 2002. "The Economics of Demand-Led Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1864.
    11. David Kiefer & Codrina Rada, 2015. "Profit maximising goes global: the race to the bottom," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 39(5), pages 1333-1350.
    12. Aaron Pacitti, 2015. "Bargaining Power, Labor Market Institutions, and the Great Moderation," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 160-182, March.
    13. Loukas Karabarbounis & Brent Neiman, 2019. "Accounting for Factorless Income," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 167-228.
    14. Özlem Onaran & Engelbert Stockhammer & Lucas Grafl, 2011. "Financialisation, income distribution and aggregate demand in the USA," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 637-661.
    15. Engelbert Stockhammer & Özlem Onaran & Stefan Ederer, 2009. "Functional income distribution and aggregate demand in the Euro area," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 139-159, January.
    16. Ozlem Onaran & Thomas Obst, 2016. "Wage-led growth in the EU15 member-states: the effects of income distribution on growth, investment, trade balance and inflation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1517-1551.
    17. Zsolt Darvas, 2012. "Real Effective Exchange Rates for 178 Countries: a New Database," Working Papers 1201, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    18. Laura Carvalho & Armon Rezai, 2016. "Personal income inequality and aggregate demand," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 491-505.
    19. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2017. "Determinants of the Wage Share: A Panel Analysis of Advanced and Developing Economies," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 55(1), pages 3-33, March.
    20. Thomas Obst & Özlem Onaran & Maria Nikolaidi, 2017. "The effect of income distribution and fiscal policy on growth, investment, and budget balance," FMM Working Paper 10-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    21. Eckhard Hein & Lena Vogel, 2008. "Distribution and growth reconsidered: empirical results for six OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 479-511, May.
    22. Jan De Loecker & Jan Eeckhout & Gabriel Unger, 2020. "The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications [“Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 561-644.
    23. Michael Cauvel, 2019. "The Neo-Goodwinian model, reconsidered," FMM Working Paper 47-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    24. Nelson H. Barbosa‐Filho & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Distributive And Demand Cycles In The Us Economy—A Structuralist Goodwin Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 389-411, July.
    25. Engelbert Stockhammer & Robert Stehrer, 2011. "Goodwin or Kalecki in Demand? Functional Income Distribution and Aggregate Demand in the Short Run," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 506-522, December.
    26. C. Naastepad & Servaas Storm, 2006. "OECD demand regimes (1960-2000)," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 211-246.
    27. Onaran, Özlem. & Galanis, Giorgos., 2012. "Is aggregate demand wage-led or profit-led? National and global effects," ILO Working Papers 994786233402676, International Labour Organization.
    28. Engelbert Stockhammer & Eckhard Hein & Lucas Grafl, 2011. "Globalization and the effects of changes in functional income distribution on aggregate demand in Germany," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 1-23.
    29. Mark Setterfield & Yun K. Kim, 2017. "Household borrowing and the possibility of 'consumption-driven, profit-led growth'," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 43-60, January.
    30. Susanto Basu, 2019. "Are Price-Cost Markups Rising in the United States? A Discussion of the Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
    31. E. Stockhammere & J. Michell, 2017. "Pseudo-Goodwin cycles in a Minsky model," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 41(1), pages 105-125.
    32. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2017. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand: what have we learned? A Kaleckian–Minskyan view," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 25-42, January.
    33. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    34. Lawrence H. Summers, 2015. "Demand Side Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 60-65, May.
    35. Bhaduri, Amit & Marglin, Stephen, 1990. "Unemployment and the Real Wage: The Economic Basis for Contesting Political Ideologies," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 375-393, December.
    36. Engelbert Stockhammer & Joel Rabinovich & Niall Reddy, 2018. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective," FMM Working Paper 14-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    37. Michael Cauvel, 2019. "The neo-Goodwinian model reconsidered," Working Papers PKWP1915, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    38. Marc Lavoie, 2017. "The origins and evolution of the debate on wage-led and profit-led regimes," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 200-221, September.
    39. Susanto Basu, 2019. "Are Price-Cost Markups Rising in the United States? A Discussion of the Evidence," NBER Working Papers 26057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "The US economy since the crisis: slow recovery and secular stagnation," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 13(2), pages 203-214, September.
    41. Arjun Jayadev, 2007. "Capital account openness and the labour share of income," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(3), pages 423-443, May.
    42. Blecker, Robert A, 1989. "International Competition, Income Distribution and Economic Growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 395-412, September.
    43. José Barrales & Rudiger von Arnim, 2017. "Longer-run distributive cycles: wavelet decompositions for the US, 1948–2011," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 196-217, April.
    44. repec:ilo:ilowps:478623 is not listed on IDEAS
    45. Michalis Nikiforos & Duncan K. Foley, 2012. "Distribution And Capacity Utilization: Conceptual Issues And Empirical Evidence," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 200-229, February.
    46. Eckhard Hein, 2014. "Distribution and Growth after Keynes," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15903.
    47. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Rabinovich, Joel & Reddy, Niall, 2017. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective. USA, UK, France and Germany, 1855-2010," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-5, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Woodgate, Ryan, 2021. "Profit-led in effect or in mere appearance? Estimating the Irish demand regime given the influence of multinational enterprises," IPE Working Papers 154/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    2. Sordi, Serena & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J., 2023. "The green-MKS system: A baseline environmental macro-dynamic model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1056-1085.
    3. Cícero, Vinicius Curti & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2023. "Functional distribution of income as a determinant of importing behavior: An empirical analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 393-405.
    4. Ozan Ekin Kurt, 2022. "Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Turkiye," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-2), pages 507-541, December.
    5. Jose Barrales‐Ruiz & Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Daniele Tavani & Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 468-503, April.
    6. Ettore Gallo, 2023. "How Short Is the Short Run in the Neo-Kaleckian Growth Model?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 687-701, July.
    7. André M. Marques, 2022. "Reviewing demand regimes in open economies with Penn World Table data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(6), pages 730-751, December.
    8. Marques, André M. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2022. "Testing for Granger causality in quantiles between the wage share in income and productive capacity utilization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 290-312.
    9. Jose Barrales-Ruiz, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, Codrina Rada, Daniele Tavani, Rudiger von Arnim, 2020. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2020_07, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    10. Cauvel, Michael & Pacitti, Aaron, 2022. "Bargaining power, structural change, and the falling U.S. labor share," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 512-530.
    11. Ryan Woodgate, 2022. "Profit-led in effect or in appearance alone? Estimating the Irish demand regime given the influence of multinational enterprises," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 319-350, July.
    12. Paul Carrillo‐Maldonado, 2023. "Partial identification for growth regimes: The case of Latin American countries," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 557-583, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: the long and the short of it," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 373-390, October.
    2. Eckhard Hein, 2017. "Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid 1990s: main developments," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 131-172, September.
    3. Marques, André M. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2022. "Testing for Granger causality in quantiles between the wage share in income and productive capacity utilization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 290-312.
    4. Cem Oyvat & Oğuz Öztunalı & Ceyhun Elgin, 2020. "Wage‐led versus profit‐led demand: A comprehensive empirical analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 458-486, July.
    5. Cícero, Vinicius Curti & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2023. "Functional distribution of income as a determinant of importing behavior: An empirical analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 393-405.
    6. Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Andre M. Marques, 2022. "Demand and Distribution in a Dynamic Spatial Panel Model for the United States: Evidence from State-Level Data," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2022_21, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), revised 05 Oct 2022.
    7. Cauvel, Michael & Pacitti, Aaron, 2022. "Bargaining power, structural change, and the falling U.S. labor share," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 512-530.
    8. Michael Cauvel, 2019. "The neo-Goodwinian model reconsidered," Working Papers PKWP1915, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    9. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Rabinovich, Joel & Reddy, Niall, 2017. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective. USA, UK, France and Germany, 1855-2010," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-5, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    10. Engelbert Stockhammer & Joel Rabinovich & Niall Reddy, 2018. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective," FMM Working Paper 14-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    11. Stefan Ederer & Miriam Rehm, 2021. "Wealth inequality and aggregate demand," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 405-424, May.
    12. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2015. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand: What have we learned? A Kalecki-Minsky view," Working Papers PKWP1512, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    13. Betül Mutlugün, 2022. "Endogenous income distribution and aggregate demand: Empirical evidence from heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregression," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 583-637, May.
    14. Stirati, Antonella & Paternesi Meloni, Walter, 2021. "Unemployment and the wage share: a long-run exploration for major mature economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 330-352.
    15. Michael Cauvel, 2019. "The Neo-Goodwinian model, reconsidered," FMM Working Paper 47-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    16. Engelbert Stockhammer & Rafael Wildauer, 2016. "Debt-driven growth? Wealth, distribution and demand in OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1609-1634.
    17. Engelbert Stockhammer & Ozlem Onaran, 2013. "Wage-led growth: theory, evidence, policy," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 61-78, January.
    18. Jose Barrales‐Ruiz & Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Daniele Tavani & Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 468-503, April.
    19. João Alcobia & Ricardo Barradas, 2023. "Functional Income Distribution And Secular Stagnation In Europe: An Analysis Of The Post-Keynesian Growth Drivers," Working Papers REM 2023/0283, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    20. Parui, Pintu, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Financialization and the Wage Gap between Blue and White Collar Workers," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 416-443.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Income distribution; wage-led demand; profit-led demand; US economy; systems estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mab:wpaper:2021-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Harry Konstantinidis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deumbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.